Season Preview: Champagne Sippers (Part 3)

Sorry for the delayed posting. I’ve been busy the past few days and unable to get internet. Today will be the season previews of the top teams in both conferences.  Enjoy: 

8. Philadelphia Sixers  

Starting 5: Jrue Holiday (PG), Evan Turner (SG), Andre Iguodala (SF), Elton Brand (PF), Spencer Hawes (C)

Breakout Player & Player to Watch: Evan Turner – Expectations were extremely high for him in his rookie year and he was kind of a letdown. He did show some upside in a couple of games and I expect him to have the starting job coming into this year. Playing time is the difference for his progression.

Overview: The current Sixers team is almost exactly the same as last season; the difference for the Sixers this season is that the other playoff teams in the East last season got better. As mentioned, Evan Turner should be a lot better this season and Jrue Holiday as well. There is also room for Andre Iguodala to still get better. He still isn’t good enough to be considered a franchise player. Elton Brand will be a year older and his game may dip dramatically, but it should not be a big issue as the other young guys like Thaddeus Young, Mo Speights and Nikola Vucevic will pick up his slack. Overall this Sixers team is still a playoff team, but the worst of the bunch.  

Season Predicition: (33-33) = 1^st round Playoff exit to the 2^nd best team in the East and another wasted year of Doug Collins coaching when he should actually be Kevin Harlan’s broadcasting partner :(

 

7. Indiana Pacers  

Starting 5: Darren Collison (PG), Paul George (SG), Danny Granger (SF), David West (PF), Roy Hibbert (C)

Breakout Player: Darren Collison – The man in charge of running one of the up-and-coming teams of the league, he should definitely bounce back from a subpar sophomore season. He has a ton of weapons around him and it should help make the game easier for him. If he can perform the way he did during his rookie season, filling in for an injured Chris Paul, the Pacers may be a lot better than their current ranking.

Player to Watch: Paul George – He’s one of the players that I’m really excited to watch this season. There’s still a lot of mystery to him because he wasn’t really that impressive in his college days at Fresno State, but by the time he was drafted, his stock sky-rocketed, and he was getting comparisons to Tracy McGrady. He didn’t play much his rookie year, but it seems like the starting shooting guard spot is up for grabs and unless George Hill claims it, I’m looking forward to watching the second coming of T-Mac get plenty of minutes this year. I’m crossing my fingers, but there’s no guarantee.

 

Overview: I really like this Pacers team, and I was ecstatic when they signed David West because for the past two seasons I had been thinking he would be a perfect fit for their team¹ When I look at the potential of their starting 5, I see a team that no top seed in the East wants to face come playoff time. They now have one of the best front courts in the league. Roy Hibbert who I thought would be a bust has become one of the more promising centers in the league. Danny Granger will continue to score and I could care less about the concerns of David West returning from a torn ACL, he will be fine. He’ll at least be a 15 & 10 guy. I love the George Hill acquisition and he’ll be excellent coming off the bench. The two players that can make them the true threat I believe they can be are the two guys I’ve already mentioned, Darren Collison and Paul George. There shouldn’t be any concerns about perimeter and post scoring, as Granger and West will provide that, Hibbert should anchor the D, but how the backcourt plays this season will set the course for the type of team we’ll see.
     

Season Prediction: (34-32) = A thrilling rematch of last season’s 1^st round match-up going the distance, but resulting in a trip home for these guys. The development of Collison and George help the team leap frog a couple of fading teams into the top 4 of the East next season.

6. Orlando Magic 

Starting 5: Jameer Nelson (PG), Jason Richardson (SG), Hedo Turkoglu (SF), Ryan Anderson (PF), Dwight Howard (C)

Breakout Player: Ryan Anderson – I never understood why Ryan Anderson was a double-double machine during his days at Berkeley. He looked and still looks like an average white guy except for the fact that he’s 6’10. Yet, Ryan Anderson continues to impress in the NBA. By season’s end he established himself as a starter on the team and had some performances that were quite impressive. Anderson is a Euro-style big man that can step out and hit the three, but he is also able to bang in the post and grab rebounds. He’s a pretty good rebounder. Given the opportunity to start at the beginning of this season, Anderson should be able to prove himself early and put up better numbers.    

Player to Watch: Earl Clark – I really don’t know why I have Earl Clark as a player to watch. Mainly cause Hedo sucks and Clark is the backup? He’s young and I remember his one season in Louisville where he was a beast, so I believe he can step up and possibly show why he was a mid-1^st round draft pick in 2009. Josh wanna talk about Earl or someone else on their team??

Overview: It’s kind of hard to breakdown the Magic with so many uncertainties regarding Dwight Howard and his remaining tenure with the team. There is no doubt Dwight wants out, but the Magic are still uncertain of what they want. They opened the market for Howard a few weeks back, and there were legitimate deals on the table ready to be completed. Then the Magic pulled Howard off the market just last week. As of now, the Magic are going to try and win a championship with Howard while testing Howard’s market value throughout the season. If this is the team built around Howard contending for a title, it won’t be enough.  At best, they could be 4^th in the East, but with too much uncertainty of how everyone will play, they drop to 6^th this season. They don’t have much upside and their core besides Howard and maybe Jameer Nelson is a bunch of veterans with their best days behind them (J-Rich & Hedo). Even if they were all to miraculously have their best seasons this year, it still wouldn’t be enough to beat the best the East has to offer. Lastly, it is not a given that Howard will play hard. He already is upset with the front office and he and Stan Van Gundy aren’t really the best of friends. He really doesn’t have to play hard if he doesn’t want to. If he does indeed play poorly it only hurts the Magic when they are finally forced to trade their disgruntled star for less than his full value. The Magic should not risk losing a full value trade for someone who will eventually leave.   

   

Season Prediction: (36-30) = Orlando losing Dwight Howard and getting nothing in return because Otis Smith was insistent on convincing Howard to stay instead of trading him at the deadline. Howard will head to Los Angeles and his departure will hurt the Magic for the next few seasons the same way Shaq’s departure hurt them.

 5. Atlanta Hawks  

Starting 5: Jeff Teague (PG), Joe Johnson (SG), Marvin Williams (SF), Josh Smith (PF), Al Horford (C)

Breakout Player: Jeff Teague - After his impressive performance in the playoffs last season, a lot of people are expecting big things from Teague this season. Kirk Hinrich will miss the first few months of the season giving Teague the starting job without any competition. He’s more of a combo guard with a score-first mentality that will have to change. He will have to learn to be a better distributor on a team who already has enough score-first players.²  Josh is a fan of his upside for the season and I think that’s a good enough blessing to expect great things from him. 

Player to Watch: Joe Johnson – In all honesty, Joe Johnson doesn’t deserve all the criticism he gets for being overpaid and overrated. I understand since he has gotten to Atlanta he has become a major ball-hog who scores 20+ a game because he takes 25 shots a game. He has also taken over $200 million from this franchise since he was traded to Atlanta and was a clear example for the players to use against the owners during the lockout regarding their stupidity of handing out large contracts to players undeserving of them. Is Johnson really the one to blame though? If someone offered you $20 million a season to play basketball even though you don’t deserve it, wouldn’t you take it? It’s that person’s fault for offering the contract. Lastly, if you are your team’s best offensive weapon and you play with a bunch of talented guys that don’t know how to play to their potential ³ wouldn’t you rather depend on yourself to get the job done? It’s J-Smoove’s fault he doesn’t know how to play like LeBron, not Johnson’s. Joe Johnson is a very good player. He has been an all-star the past few seasons, and besides last year, very deserving of being one for each of those seasons. He is still the most important player to this team, and how he plays determines where the Hawks stand in the East.  

   

Overview: The Hawks for the past few seasons have had the potential to be a legitimate force in the East, but every season they stay stuck in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff standings. They have all the right pieces to be great and their core besides Joe Johnson is still young. Al Horford is starting to come into his own and there is plenty of hope for the rise of Jeff Teague. Joe Johnson will remain the same and their bench consists of a decent group of players (T-Mac, Marvin Williams, Zaza Pachulia, etc.). The guy that has the ability to take this team over-the-top is Josh Smith. He can be a top 10 player in this league if he wants to be. He needs an improved jumper, a more aggressive attitude on the offensive end, and a better grasp of his abilities. He just never seems to understand what it takes to be great when it’s all there for him. If he can finally play to his full potential, the Hawks can be a force to be reckoned with. The Hawks can match up with any team in the league. They can play uptempo or half-court basketball. They have the right players for a championship team, but where their season ends will be dependent on how far J-Smoove’s game has developed this season and how much he asserts himself as the leader of this team.  

Season Prediction (40-26) = Another disappointing season in the ATL resulting in a first-round playoff exit to the team ranked just above them. Joe Johnson will be amnestied and sign with the Knicks for a mid-level contract and Steve Nash will join him in the Big Apple as well. 

4. Boston Celtics  

Starting 5: Rajon Rondo (PG), Ray Allen (SG), Paul Pierce (SF), Kevin Garnett (PF), Jermaine O’Neal (C)

Breakout Player: No One – The Celtics are who we thought they were and that is old. No one on this team will have a better season than expected, but I’m pretty sure Celtic-nation hopes KG has one vintage beast KG season that has been extinct for three years already. Maybe Avery Bradley? Jujuan Johnson? E’Twaun Moore? Naah.

Player to Watch: Brandon Bass – With Jeff Green missing the entire season with a heart condition, and Jermaine O’Neal’s health always being a concern, Bass’s contributions to the team this season will be critical. He’s always been a good player wherever he goes, but the Celtics need him to be at best...very good? They need everything their past bench bigs have been in one player (think Leon Powe + Glenn Davis). That means a ton of hustle, solid mid-range shooting, crying, and a lot of saliva.

  

Overview: Considered the final run for the Celtics, I am slowly losing hope in them with each day before the season tips off. That final run may be over before it even started. The Celtics have had a tumultuous offseason, unable to trade for Chris Paul, unable to sign David West, and losing Jeff Green, who was expected to have a breakout season for them. Danny Ainge’s aggressiveness to get rid of Rajon Rondo and the failure of executing a trade really hurts the team. An unhappy Rondo is not going to benefit the C’s at all and if he remains on the team, they will need him to be spectacular. Having him pissed all season won’t inspire him to prove Ainge wrong. Rondo may end up slacking and force his way out of Boston. The Celtics’ veteran leadership and chemistry is still existent and that may be what prevents Rondo from quitting on his team. I can’t see him letting those guys down. The most important ingredient to a championship run is something I have believed in since 2008 when their superteam formed and I still believe in this now: the Celtics will only go as far as Kevin Garnett takes them. As long as Kevin Garnett performs to the best of his abilities, the Celtics still have a chance. When KG plays with that intensity that makes him the biggest douche on the planet he is at his best. It won’t matter as much whether the team has Rajon Rondo running the offense or Avery Bradley. If Garnett decides to work his defenders in the post this year (post fade-away jumper = unstoppable or hook shot) instead of set jumpers from 15, plays with a ferocity present in the T-Wolves’ days, and barks at all opponents calling Charlie Villanueva a “cancer patient” again,  then the C’s will be in good shape. The lockout can be detrimental and beneficial to the C’s. They’ll be well-rested coming into the season and having a core that has played together for three consecutive seasons they can get into the flow of playing high-quality basketball faster than other teams. However, the wear-and-tear of a shortened schedule consisting of back-to-back-to-backs will also cost the team some games this year. ⁴ They’re better suited for the Playoffs but a ranking of 4^th in the East may already be pretty high for these guys. It’s given due to respect for who they were in the past. When the season plays out, they could definitely fall out of the top 5 in the East. The one thing that keeps me believing they can still make a run come playoff time is that veteran core of Pierce, Allen, and Garnett. They will keep everything together. There is too much pride and leadership on this team to allow Rondo and other issues to ruin the season. (Who am I kidding, the Celtics are screwed…sorry Bill!)

Season Prediction: (40-26) = They will beat the Hawks in 7, but against that 1^st ranked team, that series will get ugly. The season will conclude with KG’s retirement, Doc River’s retirement, and Ray Allen’s departure to Miami thus beginning the rebuilding process. This may all change if they make these trades I mentioned in the previous post thanks to Kevin McHale magic and the Hornets. In summary a new roster: (S5: J. Jack, K. Martin, P. Pierce, L. Scola, K. Garnett Bench: T. Ariza, E. Okafor, T. Williams, etc.)

3. New York Knicks  

Starting 5 – Toney Douglas (PG), Landry Fields (SG),Carmelo  Anthony (SF), Amare Stoudemire (PF), Tyson Chandler (C)

Breakout Player: Carmelo Anthony – Melo will have to become more than just an all-world scorer if he wants the Knicks to be legitimate title contenders. He will be the scoring champ this year, but he will also be a much better defender, rebounder,⁵ and Mike D’Antoni has plans to run the offense through him, making him more of a playmaker now that Chauncey Billups is gone. Melo has been over-hyped and been given way too much respect as an elite player his whole career, when in actuality he has only been the best scorer in the league and nothing else. This is the year though, with added responsibility he will be on the 1^st team all-NBA and in the MVP discussion when the season is over

Player to Watch: Toney Douglas – Before the Knicks waived Chauncey Billups to make cap space available to sign Tyson Chandler, I had Landry Fields as the player to watch. He’ll have to play much better than the way he played at the end of last season when he disappeared after the Knicks acquired Melo. If he is to slip, look for Iman Schumpert to possibly take his starting spot. Douglas now becomes the player to watch though. While Mike Bibby offers veteran experience, he is no longer the Mike Bibby I grew up admiring and at best, he is a sixth man on a good team a la the New York Knicks. Baron Davis is just…fat every season. I know everyone says when his head and heart are in the game, he’s one of the best in the league, but it’s been five years and 50 lbs. since we saw that Baron. What makes me think he will change? Douglas on the other hand has potential to win the hearts of all the fans at the Garden as the team’s starting point guard of the future. He is an explosive scorer, but he will have to learn to be a distributor as well. His role on the team will be increased and he will either thrive or crack under the added pressure of playing in the Big Apple.

Overview: The addition of Tyson Chandler really hurts the Knicks in the future. It means they no longer have cap space to attempt to sign Deron Williams or Dwight Howard in the offseason, but his acquisition is huge for them this year. Chandler is exactly what the Knicks need. The team is filled with terrible defenders and he will protect the paint when his teammates get beat on D, probably resulting in quite a few disqualifications (foul outs) this season. Regardless, his presence alone makes the Knicks a much better team. He’ll also be able to score many easy buckets in the uptempo offense. STAT will be STAT, and as I mentioned, Melo will be better than he’s ever been. The shooting guard position is a little iffy, but the x-factor is most certainly Toney Douglas and how he runs the team will be very important to the teams’ success. The fact that they’ve invested on improving their defense makes me believe they are headed in the right direction for this season.  I’m just not too sure if they planned accordingly for the future… 

Season Prediciton: (42 -24) = Spike boasting about beating the Pacers in the playoffs, but crying about losing to Jordan’s team in the Conference Finals again, excuse me Rose’s team. The Knicks will also amnesty Tyson Chandler in the offseason and attempt to sign Dwight Howard or Deron Williams, failing and going to Plan B which I mentioned earlier, a reunion of the old Phoenix Suns (including Q & Boris Diaw & hopefully Shawn Marion too) + Carmelo.

     

2. Chicago Bulls 

Starting 5:  Derrick Rose (PG), Richard Hamilton (SG), Luol Deng (SF), Carlos Boozer (PF), Joakim Noah (C)

Breakout Player: Joakim Noah – He might not be the prettiest player in the league or have the prettiest game, but he is one of the most valuable centers in the league. He does all the dirty work, plays stellar defense, and doesn’t need recognition for his work. He’s unselfish and even without any offensive skill, he is deserving of being one of the highest-paid centers in the league. He has the “Tyson Chandler effect” where he controls the game on the defensive end and his value is based purely on that. He’s gotten better each season on the boards and defense, but he will have to be much better on the offensive end this year. Last season in the Conference Finals against the Heat, Derrick Rose was double-teamed often by the centers of the Heat because Noah could not hit a mid-range jumper. That inability to score closed driving lanes for Rose and hurt the Bulls offensively. I watched Noah play in the FIBA tournament this summer and he was very aggressive on the offensive end, which he needs to be on the Bulls. If he worked on his shot too, it will allow the Bulls to space the floor and make Derrick Rose even harder to defend.       

Player to Watch: Richard Hamilton – The Bulls had been coveting him since last year’s trade deadline and they now have their perfect fit at shooting guard. Rip has not played meaningful basketball and has coasted through games for the past three seasons, but history has shown when he has something to play for, he can be an all-star shooting guard in the league. I don’t expect him to be on that all-star level, but I do expect him to be a major upgrade from Keith Bogans. He has always been an underrated defender and I don’t think that mid-range jumper has gone anywhere. Hamilton will have to become Derrick Rose’s sidekick in scoring. That’s the reason they signed him.

Overview: From reading about the two previous guys and the type of contributions they need to provide for the team this season, it is pretty clear, the Chicago Bulls need a lot of offensive improvement from last season. Their defense is one of the best in the league and as long as Joakim Noah patrols the paint and Derrick Rose lurks on the perimeter, that won’t change. The reason they lost to the Heat last season was because they only had one playmaker in Derrick Rose. I don’t think Rip will be a great playmaker, but he will be able to take some pressure off Rose to do everything by hitting the open shots he creates. Luol Deng does not get enough credit for being the glue guy of the team. He plays a ton of minutes, does a great job guarding the LeBrons, Kobes, and Durants of the league, and is consistent on a nightly basis. Carlos Boozer should have a much better season and I don’t believe his game actually dipped, but rather he had a difficult time adjusting to a new team after starting late due to an injury.  I’ve already mentioned Noah. Their bench is pretty solid. I love Taj Gibson and he makes Boozer expendable. CJ Watson is a prototype back-up point guard, and my x-factor for this team is Ronnie Brewer. If the Bulls can get the Utah Jazz-version of Brewer then he can really help the team. In the end, I still don’t think the Bulls have enough to beat the Heat. Derrick Rose still needs a better sidekick. It’s not Rip, and Boozer fits better in a Chris Bosh-role (so does Taj Gibson making Boozer the trade piece) on this team. Rose needs a Pippen, an explosive wing that can do everything (i.e. Rudy Gay, Andre Iguodala). If the front office can get Rose that player, then the Bulls can seriously compete with the Heat. Of course acquiring that center in Orlando wouldn’t hurt either.   

Season Prediction: (48-18) = Being almost there, but not quite, losing in a more competitive series against the Heat in 6. Chicago also becomes a serious destination for Dwight Howard if he isn’t trade by this season’s deadline to either the Nets or Lakers.

1. Miami Heat 

Starting 5: Mario Chalmers (PG), Dwyane Wade (SG), Lebron James (SF), Chris Bosh (PF), Joel Anthony (C)

Breakout Player: Mario Chalmers – One of the more impressive players of the Finals last year, he is an incredible perimeter defender, someone who is not afraid of pressure,  and someone able to make big plays in the clutch. He will have to hit the open three when Bron or Wade drives and he will have the toughest task of defending the Chris Paul’s, Derrick Rose’s, and Russell Westbrook’s  of the league on a nightly basis. I am confident that Chalmers will be able to perform both those tasks very well.

Player to Watch: Chris Bosh – If Bosh is a man, hopefully he shows it this season. Expectations were high on him last year and it was well-deserved. When LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are your teammates, and you were considered a top-10 player in the league, there are no excuses to not put up 20-15 every night. Bosh started to play better towards the end of the year and was actually the Heat’s best player in the Finals. While all the hype on Bosh has died down coming into the year, I expect Bosh to be much better this year. He will be more comfortable this season with his role, putting less emphasis on being a tough guy and just being himself, playing the way people expected him to play last year. He will have a great year and reestablish himself as a top power forward in the game. He has to if the Heat want to win their first title.

Overview:  Alright, I hate to say it, but this will be the year the Heat get it done. Think about this, LeBron is a season away from being in the league for a decade. He hasn’t even hit his prime yet, but a decade in the league is a long time and he still has not won a title with all his talent! He has to win one sooner than later, and I think it’s now. Dwyane Wade is not getting any younger and he is in the prime of his career. Bosh will be a lot better this year and the role players just have to play to their roles and they will be fine (Chalmers plays d & hit 3’s. Anthony grabs boards & block shots). Pat Riley will probably get this team a better center ⁶ eventually, possibly a point guard with experience,⁷ and the bench does need an upgrade besides Shane Battier and Udonis Haslem which will probably be addressed with a veteran cut before the playoff-roster deadline. Even if the Heat were to stick with this team, I think it is more than enough to win a championship. If there was an 82-game season, I would have been bold enough to predict a season of 73-9 with these guys. I think they would have been and will be that good in a shortened 66-game season.⁸  These guys should have had enough of being the butt of everyone’s jokes for an extended offseason and when this season is over, they should have the last laugh.   

Season Prediction (56-10) = The 1^st championship in South Beach and the death of basketball…just kidding. It will be great for the NBA and if the Heat lose, that would be great for the NBA too. As long as the Heat are involved for an entire NBA season the league will thrive. I think it’s finally time for LeBron to come through however, so I have him and his team beating _______(they’ll be mentioned tomorrow) in 5, but it’s never a guarantee with LeBron. I can 100% guarantee this prediction though: LeBron’s hairline receding another inch before next season. By the time his career is over, his headband will be worn the way Josh Howard wears it, but not for style-purposes.

Footnotes:

¹ Who would you rather have taking 15-foot jumpers, West or Josh McRoberts? Troy Murphy? 

² Joe Johnson, Joe Johnson, and Joe Johnson 
³ Marvin Williams & freaking Josh Smith! He can be a poor man's LeBron and it pisses me off and it should piss all basketball fans off that he doesn't work to be that.
⁴ Doc will rest Allen, Pierce, and KG in at least one of those games. 
⁵ Always been an excellent rebounder, needs to get in the paint and do more of it.
⁶ Not Eddy Curry
⁷ Steve Nash!!! Please!!! Steve Nash!!!

⁸  2 of the top 3 players in the league, a top 5 power forward, it should be easy.