Thursday, June 28, 2012

5 Things: Draft Special (2012)

It's here folks, Draft Night 2012. A night that the league welcomes its potential future stars and for the bottom dwellers of the league, a chance to improve their teams' fortunes in the long run. Unlike last season's weak draft class, this season features a slew of talent that can be found all throughout the draft board. While the class is strong and many fans will mostly likely rejoice about their newest addition, nothing is ever guaranteed that a draft class may be decent like the one pictured above (1996) or great like in 2003. As a fan I can only hope that it will not be another night where my Warriors draft another Patrick O'Bryant or Ike Diogu and get fortunate enough to see someone like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist drop to us at 7...With that being said, this year's draft should most certainly be more exciting to watch than last year's, so let's see what there is to look forward to in tonight's draft: 

5. Where are the Euros? 
Just last season, the draft featured six Euros selected in the first round with three selected in the top ten, and one that stole the show. As for this season, only one is currently projected to go in the first round, and being a late projected pick, there is no guarantee that a Euro or a foreign player will be selected in the first round tonight. So what gives? Or more like where did they all disappear. Like I've said plenty times before, all Euros are soft and can never be alpha dogs of teams unless their name is Dirk Nowitzki, but in terms of international talent, why is it lacking or where have the younger talent overseas gone? I have no answer for that and it intrigues me because besides Evan Fournier in this year's draft and Rudy Gobert in next year's draft, the influx of legitimate international talent is fading from the league and I wonder should it be a cause for concern moving forward in terms of international appeal of the game... 

4. Will There Be a Big Trade This Year?
During last year's draft not too many moves were made due to the fear of a lockout, which eventually occurred a week later scaring teams away from making moves that could potentially harm their cap space once the new collective bargaining agreement was settled. With all of that settled coming into this year's draft and a strong class of prospects enticing to many teams, there could be a couple big names on the move tonight. The biggest name that could be dealt is Dwight Howard, with guys like Andre Iguodala, Rudy Gay, Luol Deng, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and the entire Rockets roster following behind him. Deals have been taking place already and as it stands, Daryl Morey is trading at will for better draft picks to build the most enticing package to acquire Dwight Howard for his Rockets. It wouldn't surprise me if any of the names mentioned above are moved tomorrow (Calling GSW front office: If Rudy Gay or Andre Iguodala is offered for the 7th pick straight up and Kidd-Gilchrist is gone, ACCEPT ACCEPT.) and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the biggest trade of the night only involves a Kyle Lowry, Luis Scola, and draft picks swap for Pau Gasol just because the Rockets plan to keep moving up fails. The potential of big draft night trades alone makes the draft worthy of watching. So stay tuned folks. Now onto my favorite part. Talking about...
   
3. The Overrated, The Enigmas, & The Sleepers
In a draft that features so much talent that many of the analysts claim to have guaranteed contributors in the long run, it is pretty much unfair to call any of these guys overrated because although I feel some are a little too highly rated, I still believe at least the top 20 prospects in this draft will become solid NBA players even if they never reach their potential. That being said there are a couple of guys in this draft who are getting a little too much love for where they are projected to go and that list includes: Austin Rivers, John Henson, Damian Lillard, and Meyers Leonard. Starting with Subzero. I get it, he's a hell of a scorer that can create his own shot and get to the rack and to the line, but what else can he do? He's not a great defender, he's not very quick or athletic and he is a ballhog whose confidence has reached to a level of cockiness where he thinks he is too good for his own actual skill set and he can be disruptive to his team. That is why I believe he is better suited to fall past the lottery to a playoff team that can discipline him and provide him with a role fitting to his career ceiling of a Jason Terry or Mo Williams, the sixth man scorer that just goes into the game with one job, score at will. If drafted by a young team with a coach lacking discipline, Rivers' career can go in another direction towards the Nick Youngs, Eddie Houses and Ricky Davis' of the league. Unfortunately for Austin he'll most likely land on a losing team where he'll be allowed a much larger role than what he is capable of. Although many believe the Celtics and his dad as his coach would not work, I believe that would be an excellent team for him to join given how bad the C's need an irrational confidence scorer. Only one can dream...John Henson is another player who I wished would be drafted later than projected as well. He's an excellent shot blocker with an improving jump shot, but he is still very raw and will need some time to get stronger and round out his game. If he were to go to say...the Pistons, I just don't believe he'll be ready to be thrown into the front line immediately and protect the paint. I love his potential and I think with time he'll be very good on a veteran team, but I just don't believe he is ready to start on a losing team in the NBA now... As for Damian Lillard and Meyers Leonard, these are two guys who have come under the radar to rise on the draft board. With Lillard, I have seen his type of player drafted before, and his name is Jerryd Bayless. I love guys like Lillard and Bayless but what makes them unsuccessful in the NBA? They don't have elite athleticism a la Westbrook or Rose to attack the rim with success in the NBA like they did in college and because of that, their score-first tendencies will affect their ability to be an efficient point guard in the league. Although Lillard is a point guard and labeled "unselfish," he is actually an undersized shooting guard that thrives on scoring to succeed. He is also from a mid-major college. Will Lillard be a good player in the league? I really cannot tell but I do like him and I will be cheering for him to succeed. I just don't know if he is worthy of being taken in the top 10 tonight... Laslty, Meyers Leonard...I have a question: When was the last time the NBA had a 7-foot all-star center that is white?...Still guessing?...Without research I am going to guess Brad Miller in 03?? The correct answer is actually Chris Kaman in 2010, but you get the point, white centers (and not counting the Euros or Kevin Love, he's a PF) in the league aren't really the thing anymore and they haven't been for awhile, just ask Cole Aldrich. So would you want to use your lottery pick on possibly the next Joel Pryzbilla? I don't think so...

The next list of guys are my enigmas of the draft. They are guys that could be better, possibly worse, and intriguing because of their particular skill sets. They include: Perry Jones, Quincy Miller, Royce White, and Draymond Green. When watching Perry Jones play, you see all the talent and potential that is there, but then you see the lack of heart and the lack of "it,"  that disappoints the hell out of me. With his size (6'10) and skill he could be a superstar in the league and on many draft boards prior to this college season he was in the top 5, but of course he had a disappointing season and he lacks a lot of things: a specific position, strength for his size (234lb), and the all important "it," which would make him a problem in the league. Would he be worth a late lottery pick, absolutely, but top 10, no way. He's a high risk, high reward potential-type of player and if he one day understands what he is capable of, plays with any semblance of intensity, he can be special... As for his teammate at Baylor, Quincy Miller, I really like the potential he has, but he has a red flag on his ACL which he injured his senior year of high school that took away from his game last season. With him, I see potential for him to become a poor man's Kevin Durant. His game is silky smooth like KD's, he's got the height and length similar to KD (6'10, 219), and he's only 19. Given his size and game, he can still work his way into becoming a very good player in the league and for a late-round pick, he is definitely worth taking... Royce White is probably the most interesting player in the draft, but I don't need to talk about him because many have already written about him. Just read this and watch this. He has a very nice all-around game and when someone has that type of talent, you can definitely overlook his problems. Put him on a contender and give him a role a la Boris Diaw's and you will have a very successful player... Last but surely not least is one of my favorite college players the last few years, Draymond Green. If Perry Jones would play with the heart that Green played with every game for Tom Izzo at Michigan State, Jones would be a top 3 pick this year guaranteed. That is how highly I respect the motor of Green and the intensity with which he plays. The problem for Green is that he is way undersized (6'7) to be a power forward in the league and he may be a little too slow to be a small forward. He is the ultimate tweener who does everything well but nothing great. The reason why I believe he will succeed is because he works hard and is an excellent team player, willing to adjust and play whatever role the team needs of him. If you followed his career at MSU from his freshman season where he was a chubby kid to his senior season where he became a triple-double threat every game you will understand the type of work ethic he possesses to play in the NBA. As a late-first rounder, he will be a diamond in the rough as the team that drafts him will get the next Chuck Hayes or Shane Battier or Lamar Odom. Anything is possible with Draymond Green.  

Now onto my sleepers of this year's draft, and they include: Dion Waiters, Moe Harkless, Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague, and Scott Machado. Starting with Dwyane Wade 2.0, Dion Waiters. Although Waiters has actually been soaring up the draft boards since the collegiate season ended (late-first round to lottery to top 10 to now potential #4) I will still treat him as a sleeper if he is drafted outside of the top 10, maybe even top 5 of this draft because I think he will be that good. When watching him play at the Cuse, it was evident regardless of the fact that he came off the bench, he was the best player on the floor every game. The only reason he wasn't starting was because the Orangeman had three guards with seniority over him (Kris Joseph, Scoop Jardine, and Brandon Triche). I was so fascinated by his game that I took to the social networking sites in March to proclaim the second coming of Dwyane Wade, and I still stand by this statement. Pair him with Kyrie Irving in Cleveland, I dare them to and they will get the most explosive, exciting backcourt in the league. What I love about Waiters is his ability to attack the rim at will (he's a bowling ball) and get to the line. His jumper is still a bit iffy but so was D-Wade's when he entered the league. I absolutely love Waiters and I will buy all of his future stock and do not care if he ends up becoming a bust...Moe Harkless and Marquis Teague are on this list simply because if they had stayed one more year in college, they'd be top 10 picks next year, so if they are drafted outside the top 10, you're basically stealing a top 10 prospect right? More than that, I really like Harkless. He played on a very young St. John's team last year and I believe that him being thrown into the fire early and being the best player on that team will make him a future stud in the league. Not to mention he played great as well for a freshman in the Big East. As for Teague, I wish he had stayed one more year at UK. He ran the show for the national champions, but I think another year where he could play some off guard alongside Ryan Harrow and display his true scoring abilities would have helped. However he is in this year's draft and that's fine because at his age he is already better than his older brother, Jeff. Teague has the potential to be an explosive score-first point guard and I think his game is much better-suited for the NBA. My favorite comparison that he is getting is Steve Francis...Terrence Jones has been a personal favorite of mine for awhile now. At times he doesn't show up, but I've never discredited the way he plays and the chip on the shoulder with which he plays with. He always seems pissed like someone stole his bike and I feel like that edge and anger will help him in the league. It was clearly evident how good he could be when pissed at UK and hopefully that intensity translates to the NBA. The only problem is that he doesn't really have a position and his bully-type game may not work in the league with other guys being just as strong as he is. Regardless I would take him at 10-25 and no earlier or later...Lastly, Scott Machado. For any true collegiate basketball fan, Iona, may have been one of the most fun mid-major teams to watch last year, due in large part to Momo Jones, and the guy that ran the show, Machado. Would it be even fair to say that he is a poor man's version of someone else who is in this draft? Well he's basically Kendall Marshall, a pure pass-first point guard with little athleticism and weak defense, that can rack up many assists given the right system in the NBA (think Phoenix's run and gun). For teams in the second round that have lost the opportunity to draft Marshall, Machado is their guy, and he really isn't too far from being the exact same player.             
 
2. Who Should Be Two? 
There is no doubt to anyone that Anthony Davis will be the first pick in this year's draft. The question that remains is who will follow Davis in the draft, what team will actually make the pick, and how will the pick have a domino-effect on the rest of the draft. Currently the Bobcats have the pick but they've been working on making a deal to move out of that spot in addition to getting rid of Tyrus Thomas's contract. Potential suitors for the pick include the Wizards and Cavaliers and with the many trades that have already been made prior to draft night, it would not be a surprise if another team makes a move for this pick. As for the three best players available after Davis they are: Bradley Beal, Thomas Robinson, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. I'm pretty sure all basketball enthusiasts have already read more than enough about these three guys so I won't go too far discussing each of them. 

The consensus number two as of now has all signs pointing to Beal being that guy. Drawing many comparisons to Ray Allen, Beal is considered to have an almost identical game to Allen's all the way to an almost identical buttery jump shot as well. The one thing that has scouts raving about him is his mechanics and fundamentals. His ceiling would probably be comparable to a career like Sugar's which would be superb and even if he isn't destined to becoming a future all-star, he will certainly have a role in this league for many years as a spot-up shooter/3-point threat. The one thing that I really like about Beal besides his offensive mechanics is his defense. He's quick on his feet and watching a couple of his games last season, what stood out to me was his ability to get in passing lanes and on occasion chase down fast breaks for the LeBron-esque block. The one thing that worries me is his size. He's 6'4 which is a bit undersized for a 2-guard in the league and he's not super-athletic. However he possesses that strong fundamental skill set, he's quick, and he's quite strong for his height and age. His game is smooth and the fact that he shot 34% from deep this season doesn't worry me at all given the belief that his game is better suited for the NBA and he was playing out of position at Florida. He'll be very good and the proper comparison that I would give him is Eric Gordon. If the Bobcats pass on him, I do not see him falling past the Wizards at 3. I could also see him going 2 if the Cavaliers were to trade up for him.

Next up is Thomas Robinson. When I watch Thomas Robinson play, the thing I am most impressed with, is how hard he plays. He is a physical specimen that crashes the boards and plays hard on every possession. In terms of skill, he is not very polished yet as he depends more on his athletic ability to get by on both the offensive and defensive ends. An aspect of Robinson that I love is his mental toughness. The ability for him to bounce back after losing both his grandparents and his mother in the span of a month during his sophomore season, and to work himself to this point of his life is incredible and very respectable. There's no doubt in my mind that he will be ready to play in this league and work to get better. His ceiling is Amare Stoudemire, maybe a better defender not as good on offense, and at worst he could be a Taj Gibson. Given the right point guard to play pick and roll with him and the right coach to help his raw skill set (lacking a solid post game, decent mid-range jumper) flourish, Robinson could be really special in the league. He could possibly go second to the Bobcats, but he will fall no further than 5th to the Kings.      

The next guy I will talk about leads to...


1. The Best Player in This Draft Without a Unibrow Will Be...
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. 
While some worry about his hitchy jump shot, his inability to create his own shot, his fear of speaking in public, and his best attribute as being his "motor." I have no doubts that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will be the best player in this year's draft besides Anthony Davis. He is the ultimate team player and as long as he is not drafted by the Bobcats or a team that asks of him to be their alpha dog, he will succeed. He is the ultimate sidekick, also known by many to potentially be the next Scottie Pippen. He doesn't need the ball to be effective and there will never be concerns about him playing in big moments. He is a tenacious rebounder especially on the offensive glass (ask Louisville), he can attack the basket with brute force, he is a huge problem in transition, and he knows where to be on the court at all times. A lot of his special skills are things that cannot be taught. 

Now critics will say, why would a team use a top 5 pick on someone who cannot even assert his will as the best player on the court and has many attributes that do not display an alpha dog? But I say that is what makes Kidd-Gilchrist so special. Pippen played Robin to Jordan's Batman and was still one of the 50 greatest players to ever play the game. I believe that Kidd-Gilchrist can use all his skill to be Pippen 2.0 and given the right teammate (Kyrie Irving, John Wall), he can really be something special.


Now if I had to go out on a limb and pick an alpha dog in this draft class that is not Anthony Davis, then the choice is...


Harrison Barnes.
Alright so I get it. He disappeared when it mattered most in the tournament and at times, it seems like he doesn't have that work ethic and hunger to be a superstar in the league. However, what I do know about Barnes is that he has all the tools to become a superstar in the league and yes I'll say it, he has all the tools to be the next Kobe Bryant. While people question whether or not he has the all important "it" trust me he does. He has an NBA-ready body as well and he will eventually learn how to create his own shot. I believe if he falls out of the top 5 of this draft, he is a steal, and if he can play to his true potential, you are looking at a future star in the league for many years to come.