Season Preview: Champagne Sippers (Part 4)

Merry Christmas yall! Last of the season predictions. I don't like the parentheses so I'm copying the great literature that i read with footnotes. Who am I kidding, I was really inspired by the great Bill Simmons to do it. If you see a number above anything, just scroll all the way down, the footnote will be there. Enjoy:

8. Golden State Warriors  

Josh will give an entire team breakdown so I'll be quick with the Warriors.

Strating 5: Stephen Curry (PG), Monta Ellis (SG), Dorrell Wright (SF), David Lee (PF), Andris Biedrins (C)

Breakout Player: Stephen Curry – It’s no secret how valuable Steph is to our team and the rest of the league after all the Chris Paul trade discussions. Coming into his third season, expectations are very high.

Player to Watch: David Lee – Needs to be the double-double machine he was in New York.

Overview: I really like Mark Jackson as the coach and like everyone else I cannot wait to hear those in-game huddles¹. I’ve mentioned Steph and D-Lee’s prospects for the season, and I still think Monta and Biedrins need to go. We really can’t afford to have a mediocre season because we only have a top-7 protected draft pick for next season and I don't believe we're a bottom-7 team so I expect quality basketball from the W’s. The current roster we have is good enough to be in the playoffs, our chemistry is very good, and the ownership is now dedicated to winning. Isn’t it about time the Warriors got some of this bay area sports magic anyways?

Season Prediction (36-30) = Kwame Brown weighing in at 300lbs by the end of the year and playing only 25 games due to a “turf toe” injury  with a grand total of 50 minutes, 30 fouls, 4 points, 6 rebounds, 0 assists, and 1 block. And we signed him for $7 million?!?!? Give me Reggie Evans. He’ll do all that for a sack of nuts. 

7. Portland Trailblazers  

Starting 5: Raymond Felton (PG), Wesley Matthews (SG), Nicholas Batum (SF) *Correction* Gerald Wallace (I totally forgot about him), LaMarcus Aldridge (PF), Greg Oden (C)

Breakout Player: Nicholas Batum – With the saddening news of Brandon Roy’s early retirement, the Blazers need to find a new young superstar to take over the reins of the team and Batum is the guy with the most upside and potential to become that player. He’s always been an excellent defender and in the past few seasons he’s been able to become a much-better shooter. I fully expect a much bigger role for him this season and I expect him to handle the added pressure without any problems. He’s been in the league for four seasons and it’s time he starts reaching the peak of his potential. If the Blazers want to move quickly past the Brandon Roy era, French Pippen will need to become more than just an athletic defender this season. 

Player to Watch: Greg Oden – I’ve never really been a big fan of Oden and it’s not because he’s a jerk or anything. He’s actually a pretty funny guy with a good personality, but being the biggest Kevin Durant fan just made me dislike him because I knew Durant would be a better player than Oden, and I was a little bitter that Oden was picked 1^st over Durant. It wasn’t the wrong decision by the Blazers though. I’ve always believed if there is a “franchise center” in the draft, you have to take him first. I always thought Oden would become a really good center, but I didn’t expect the Blazer-injury curse to strike his career too. After so many seasons of disappointment and injury, at some point you have to feel sorry for the guy. That is why I believe Oden will finally have his first healthy season² and actually make an impact on the team. When healthy, Oden has proved he can be a good center in the league. He’s an excellent rebounder and shot blocker with a decent post game. If Oden can actually stay healthy this season and be half the player we expected him to be, just his impact on defense alone will make the Blazers a much-better team. 

Overview: The Blazers are the same team every season. Middle of the pack playoff team, plays a tough first round series, but gets eliminated. This season’s team is built for that same fate. Losing one of the most promising shooting guards in the league at the prime of his career is a huge blow for a franchise that was on its way to being a yearly contender in the West. Moving on from this huge setback won’t happen immediately. However, the front office has managed to put together a team that is still very good. Ray Felton is a slight upgrade over an aging Andre Miller, but that Andre Miller guy…he is mysteriously amazing, while Felton is straight hit or miss depending on the type of basketball his team plays. The Blazers are slooooooow, and I don’t know if Felton will be as effective as he was last season when he played on two fastbreak teams. Wesley Matthews was an excellent pick-up last season and I don’t think anyone could have predicted him to be a quality replacement for Roy, but he’s done a pretty good job so far, and should continue to do so this year. I’ve mentioned Batum and Oden and how they play will impact the team. LaMarcus Aldridge is the star of this team now and it’s amazing how this happened when just a few years ago Oden was drafted, and it was expected that he would be the third-option for their future. Roy is retired and Oden has never played a full season, but Aldridge has become one of the most versatile power forwards in the game. He will be greatly depended on this season to carry the team once again. Lastly, what happened to their bench? I don’t know anyone on it anymore. Overall, they’re a good team, good enough to repeat the last few seasons.  

Season Prediction (37-29) = My curse on Oden results in a bone fracture in his knee caused by riding the stationary bike too hard. He misses the entire season yet again, becomes discouraged, retires from basketball, and becomes the tallest porn star in the industry³. Oh and the Blazers will get destroyed by the guy they should have drafted instead of Oden in the 1^st round of the playoffs. Cry your hearts out Blazer fans.

6. Los Angeles Clippers  

Starting 5: Chris Paul (PG), Chauncey Billups (SG), Caron Butler (SF), Blake Griffin (PF), DeAndre Jordan (C)

Breakout Player: DeAndre Jordan – Tyson Chandler in 2008 and a ton of this !!!

Player to Watch: Chauncey Billups – He will have to provide the leadership and set an example of how to win on a team with huge expectations and a ton of hype. Chauncey is the only guy on the roster who matters that has played for something meaningful in his NBA career. Responsibility on him will be plenty as he has to keep this team together and build a strong chemistry in the backcourt with Chris Paul. He’ll also be playing out of position. Scoring shouldn’t be a problem, but how will he fare as an undersized shooting guard on defense? Will he be able to defend Kobe or Dwyane Wade or will that job be given to an undersized Chris Paul? Chauncey will have plenty of different roles and plenty of different challenges thrown at him this season, and I’m intrigued to see if he’s up for the task and if his winning ways will rub off on his teammates.   

Overview: The Clippers have had one hell of an offseason, and for Donald Sterling, who has been the worst owner in the NBA for 30 years; he deserves an A or maybe David Stern does. The only reason he doesn’t get an A+ is because he cracked under the pressure of Stern to give up Eric Gordon instead of Eric Bledsoe, which makes a HUGE difference. Eric Gordon is on his way to claiming the title of third-best shooting guard in the league, and if the Clippers could have kept him, they would have been the favorites in the West. Nonetheless, the team is headed in the right direction and the rest of the moves Sterling made this offseason were excellent. Let’s begin with the big trade of CP3. Whoo! I really cannot think of a better place for him to go. He is the perfect point guard. His playmaking abilities are flawless and now he has Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to run with him on a fastbreak. That’s not even fair. Billups and Butler will be the veteran leadership needed. They will also have to be the perimeter offense. Blake the cornflake Griffin…I don’t have any more words to describe him and his potential especially now that CP3 is his point guard. What has not been said about this new pairing? 25 and 15 is a strong possibility for Blake this year. DeAndre Jordan can be a 15-10 guy simply because Paul is the point guard. Their bench is the one aspect of their team that I’m not sold on. Yes, they have Mo Williams, but who after that? Ryan Gomes? Brian Cook? They will need to get more depth before the trade deadline. The hype for this team is well-deserved and expectations will be met and possibly exceeded. The only reason I rank them, 6^th is because the teams ahead of them are proven and have been together for a while. I’m not ready to give them top-seeding in the West, not until they play real games together and not until Caron Butler or Chauncey Billups convince me that they can be a legitimate third guy on a championship-contending team. If these things work out, this team will be the real deal and they can definitely be the best team in the West.

Season Prediction: (40-26) = One more season away from being real contenders. Donald Sterling will finally be a good owner and get a better bench and possibly a younger shooting guard to replace Chauncey Billups. They will beat their in-town rivals and overtake them as the team to watch in Los Angeles. They’re season will end to the 2^nd ranked team in the West in a matchup of two of the brightest, up-and-coming teams in the league.

5. San Antonio Spurs 

Starting 5: Tony Parker (PG), Manu Ginobili (SG), Richard jefferson (SF), Tim Duncan (PF), DaJuan Blair (C)

Breakout Player: James Anderson – The Spurs need someone on this team to give them new life. Anderson’s ability to score can make him that guy. He was supposed to have a decent role with the Spurs last year, but injuries delayed his progression and the Spurs were willing to wait for him to develop more in preparation for this season.  

Player to Watch: Tony Parker – Tim Duncan is the franchise player, Manu Ginobili is the best all-around player, but Tony Parker is the difference-maker. The way Parker plays effects the team as much as Duncan plays and maybe even more. When the Spurs were winning championships every other season in the mid-2000s, Duncan was dominant, but Parker was one of the most difficult guards to defend in the league⁴ even winning a Finals MVP in 2007. That Parker has been missing for the past few years and maybe it’s because he’s aging or getting caught up in off-court scandals, but the Spurs need the old Parker back if they even want a chance at competing with these new western heavyweights.

Overview: Alright I’ll be honest, I don’t really know much about anything the Spurs have done this offseason. I assume their team is pretty much the same as last season and that’s fine if they’re playing to get into the western conference semis.  They did have the best regular season record in the West last year, but the Grizzlies showed how old the Spurs really were.  A shortened season may help them in the playoffs, but it won’t bring back Tim Duncan’s young legs and unless they can pull off a monumental trade which is pretty much impossible⁵ they’ll be a good regular season team, but fall short come playoff time. Tony Parker as I mentioned will either have to have an incredible season reminiscent of 2007 or be traded by the deadline for someone else that can provide the team a spark. Manu Giniboli has miraculously grown hair in his bald spot⁶ and that will keep him playing at an all-star level this season. Kawhi Leonard I assume will be the starting small forward and I think he may have a chance to be something special on this team, and that wouldn’t be the case if he was on another team.⁷ DeJuan Blair is a beast, but only on certain nights and that won’t cut it. He will need to be DeJuan “Bear” for an entire season to take some pressure off Duncan. Tim Duncan is no longer the Tim Duncan I grew to hate my entire life, and it actually saddens me. As much as I dislike Duncan’s robotic game, he is arguably the best power forward to ever play the game, and to see him unable to perform at his highest level because his body won’t allow him to is a bummer. Hopefully the lockout gave him plenty of rest and he’ll be ready to show the rest of the league he’s still got it.

Season Prediction (41-25) = A tough first round loss to the team ranked right above them. Gregg Popovich possibly retiring…and Tim Duncan being a year away from retirement. Tony Parker will be traded for Goran Dragic and Manu Giniobili will have a full head of luscious locks by the start of training camp.

4. Memphis Grizzlies  

Starting 5: Mike Conley (PG), Tony Allen (SG), Rudy Gay (SF), Zach Randolph (PF), Marc Gasol (C)

Breakout Player: OJ Mayo – It’s time for OJ to finally be the player he was expected to be. Given all his talent, there should be no reason that Tony Allen⁸ starts over him. He gave a pretty poor effort last season until the Playoffs arrived. Then he showed a little bit of the type of player he could be. I consider this season a make-or-break for him. He can either establish himself as the starting shooting guard of this team for the future or become a Jason Terry-type backup for the rest of his career.  

Player to Watch: Rudy Gay – The centerpiece to one of the best frontcourts in the league, Gay comes into this season looking to prove he can fit-in with the team after missing a pivotal growth period during their playoff run with a season-ending shoulder injury. It shouldn’t be difficult for him and with the maturation of Z-Bo and the growth of Marc Gasol’s game it should be much easier for Gay to get acclimated with the team again and flourish.⁹   

Overview: After watching them hand it to the Spurs and give the Tunder a run for their money in the playoffs, I realized these guys are no joke. They play hard, they play great basketball, they have the right pieces to win now, and those pieces will have them contending for a while. The key to their success is the two BIG guys that work the post. Marc Gasol gets better every year and it’s kind of ironic how a couple of seasons ago everyone called the Pau Gasol trade to the Lakers a travesty, but the Grizzlies may actually now have the better Gasol brother. Zach Randolph became the team’s star when Gay went out for the season and the maturation of his game has made him one of the elite power forwards in the game. He just has to stay consistent and stay away from that Memphis BBQ. Mike Conley is starting to show why he deserved to be drafted 4th in 2007, and Tony Allen (KD kryptonite) is the type of player every team should want and have. He’s completely selfless, scrappy as hell, and plays to his capabilities, never doing too much. They also have a very good bench even though Darrell Arthur is out for the year. It will be led by OJ Mayo, Sam Young, and Dante Cunningham. The key to continued success will fall all on the shoulders of the guy who wasn’t there for their playoff success, Rudy Gay. He can be the alpha dog on the team and if he does, the Grizzlies will be able to beat any team in this league.     

Season Prediction (45-21) = Rudy Gay reaching superstar level and leading his team to an upset dethroning the NBA champs in the semis and playing in a thrilling Conference Finals against the team they took to the distance in the playoffs last season, falling short yet again. They’ll be one of the new teams contending for a title the next few years as long as Z-Bo doesn’t eat himself out of the league.

3. Los Angeles Lakers 

Starting 5: Derek Fisher (PG), Kobe Bryant (SG), Devin Ebanks (SF), Pau Gasol (PF), Andrew Bynum (C)

Breakout Player: Andrew Bynum – Stay healthy and be more mature and it will all come together.

Player to Watch: Ron Artest – I refuse to call him “Metta World Peace” even though it is his legal name now. It’s for a good cause, I guess, but it’s silly. Now on Ron’s game this season, Mike Brown will play him off the bench. I wonder how this experiment will work out, but I think it’s a pretty good idea. Nothing has worked for Ron since he joined the Lakers so trying something new wouldn't be a bad idea. I believe he came off the bench when he was a Rocket and it worked out fine. Maybe he can take over for the loss of Lamar Odom and feed off being a sixth man.

Overview: There is way too much uncertainty and drama surrounding them coming into the season. They’re a team heading in a complete downfall with not much stopping it. The NBA owners and David Stern screwed them from building a new dynasty¹⁰ capable of winning five or more championships starting this season, and now they’re stuck with the same roster and a ton of issues. Mike Brown was hired to spite Kobe and say fuck the triangle and fuck Phil Jackson by the Buss family, trust me. Losing Lamar Odom will really hurt them. Pau Gasol is a pussy. He’s sensitive and I’m not sure how he’ll play knowing he isn’t wanted in LA. Andrew Bynum could be the best center in the NBA, but will he ever be healthy and mature enough to reach that status? Derek Fisher is reeeeeeeeeaaaaaaly old and sloooooooow. He is only a spot-up shooter at this point in his career. Ron Artest sucks and I’m still wondering where that amazing defender and bully in the post went. Devin Ebanks is their new starting small forward or Jason Kapono, ok. Lastly, Kobe Bryant is no longer a youngster. Those high-flying, super-human highlight plays, and game-winning shots can only last so long. He’s 33. There comes a point where he won’t be able to carry the team anymore and it may have already come. He is also dealing with a divorce from his beautiful wife. So then what makes me still rank the Lakers 3^rd? The possibility that all of these issues are corrected and these guys disregard the drama and just play basketball. I know it’s a stretch, but think about it. If Pau Gasol plays basketball like a man and Andrew Bynum stays healthy, they have the best 4-5 combo in the league. Devin Ebanks may actually be good, you never know, and Ron Ron may work better off the bench. There is no saving Fish, but maybe they can find someone younger eventually to replace him, there’s always Steve Blake...or Hibachi!! Of course Kobe will be the guy that determines everything for the team. The best players in their sport play through all adversity and play their best in those times, and Kobe will have to do that if the team wants to remain one of the best in the West.

That’s what it takes for the Lakers to win. It’s a lot, but if it comes together they can play for a championship. As long as Kobe Bryant is the star of their team, you can never count them out.  

Season Prediction (46-20) =1st round playoff exit to the Clippers, but a less-than equal trade of Andrew Bynum and some scrubs to Orlando for Dwight Howard will have the Lakers back next season. 

2. Oklahoma City Thunder 

Starting 5: Russell Westbrook (PG), Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant (SF), Serge Ibaka (PF), Kendrick Perkins (C)

Breakout Player: James Harden – So much offensive potential, so little defensive potential, but who cares. The Thunder are pretty good on help defense and on a team in need of a playmaker, Harden’s defensive deficiencies can be forgiven. He makes the game look easy, like he’s going to the rec to play pick-up at the highest level. He actually won’t be starting this season¹¹ but I can assure you he’ll be playing 30+ minutes a game this year. More minutes mean more scoring and of course it means… more BEARD!!! 

Player to Watch: Russell Westbrook – I hope everyone has forgiven Westbrook for last season’s ridiculously selfish playoff performance.  I have forgiven and forgotten and am looking forward to another year of extreme growth in his game where he takes it from all-star level to top-10 player in the league, superstar level. There are only two other point guards in the league like him. One won an MVP last season, and the other is in DC on his way to a breakout season. What separates Westbrook from the other two is that he was never a point guard until he got to the NBA. He’s still learning to play the position and he’s already one of the best. He definitely needs to learn how to be a better distributor, but his jumper is improving, and he’s already the best rebounding point guard in the league. I see him filling the rest of the holes in his game this season and his growth will be the reason my Thunder are ready for big-time success.  If he can accept being Durant’s Robin, everything will be fine. He will still be able to get his shine.

Overview: The sky is the limit for this team and I expect nothing less than great from these guys this year. There’s still plenty of room for these guys to grow, but they’re ready to win a championship now. All the pieces are there and their biggest weakness is a tendency to have scoring droughts due to lack of movement. Last time I checked they still have the two-time scoring champ, Kevin Durant, so that issue will be fixed immediately. KD will be better all-around this season and becoming more than just a scorer will be the reason he wins the MVP. Russ will compliment Durant and figure out that winning as a team player gets him more recognition and respect from everybody. The bearded-wonder will win the sixth man of the year too. He will be counted on many occasions to hit big shots in the clutch and create for his teammates, and he will do just that. They don’t lack defense either as it will be anchored in the post by Kendrick Perkins¹² and on the perimeter by Thabo Sefalosha. Serge Ibaka will contribute on both ends of the floor, blocking shots and hopefully demonstrating that new post-game he learned from the Gasols. The bench could still add some more front court depth, but everything else on this team is set for a season lasting till late June. They have a great coaching staff, a good mix of youth and veteran leadership, and a core that has played together for a couple seasons. It is finals or bust for the Thunder this year.        

Season Prediction: (50-16) = Anson failing his spring quarter of college because he’ll be glued to a television every night from April-June watching the Thunder and crying when his team loses to the Heat in 5 in the Finals... But yup, they’ve finally arrived to the point¹³ where I’m confident in them to get to the Finals. They’re just not ready to win one yet. I really wouldn’t mind if they did though.

 1. Dallas Mavericks 

Starting 5: Jason Kidd (PG), Dominique Jones (SG), Chris Brown? Tyrann Mathieu? (SF) whoops…Shawn Marion¹⁴, Dirk Nowitzki (PF), Brendan Haywood (C)

Breakout Player: Dominique Jones – His starting job will actually be on a really short leash. If he is to struggle early on, Vince Carter will most likely take his starting spot. Given the opportunity however, he can really help this team even though he will be given a limited role.¹⁵ He was a standout scorer at South Florida, and maybe he’ll be able to have some big games for the Mavericks this season.

Player(s) to Watch: Vince Carter & Lamar Odom – The two biggest names in their offseason moves, they’ll also figure to have major roles on this team. Carter who has slacked off for the past few seasons has a chance to earn back some of the respect he lost from many fans. Given less expectations maybe he’ll be able to thrive coming off the bench. Odom is definitely a strong candidate to win sixth man of the year. He’ll definitely be motivated to play harder after not being wanted by the Lakers and he’ll have something to prove.

Overview: If you expect the Mavericks to be worse than they were last season after losing Caron Butler, Tyson Chandler, and JJ Barea this offseason, you’re wrong. The Mavericks are actually a better team this season and they’ve done it by not overpaying for guys, but rather with addition by subtraction and bargain moves.¹⁶ Tyson Chandler’s replacement is Brendan Haywood who won’t have the same effect as Chandler, but will be able to do more than enough to help the team for a cheaper price. Vince Carter, Dominique Jones, and Rodrigue Beaubois replace Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson, and JJ Barea. All three will be key contributors asked to take on the same roles of the guys they replaced.¹⁷ The biggest move for the team was acquiring Lamar Odom for basically nothing.¹⁸ His versatility will allow the Mavs to play any style of basketball.¹⁹ He’ll continue to be an excellent 6^th man and allow Dirk to get plenty of rest during the regular season. The core guys of last season J-Kidd, Jet, and Dirk will still be productive this year.  Jason Kidd will probably have a large drop off, but then again I’ve been expecting that for the last few seasons, and he’s proven me wrong. Jason Terry will still be feisty and knock down threes, and Dirk will continue to be the most unorthodox killer that he is. The Mavs will be a tough champion to knock off this year and they won’t go down easily. Till proven otherwise, they will remain 1^st in the West.  

Season Prediction (52-14) = 2^nd round loss to the Grizzlies ending their championship reign. Jason Kidd retires and with plenty of cap space in the summer of 2012, Mark Cuban will try to lure Deron Williams back home to replace Kidd and if he has enough cap he’ll try to sign Dwight Howard too if he isn’t traded by this year’s deadline.

Hope you guys were all able to get your Concords or whatever gift you wanted. Christmas is already over here, but I hope you guys are excited for Christmas back in the states. It’s finally here, opening day and five NBA games, enjoy the games. Merry Christmas everybody and thanks for reading!   

Footnotes:

¹ “Monta, you know the drill, hand down man down!”

² I think I just cursed him, sorry Gregory.

³ Search his leaked nude photos, I won’t think differently of you. You’ll be quite impressed.

⁴ Led the league in points in the paint as a point guard, super quick with an unstoppable floater, and his mid-range game was up there with Richard Hamilton.

⁵ Tony Parker is the only real valuable trade asset they have and he’s not even considered to be that valuable.

⁶ Just kidding. This was definitely an unnecessary scroll down to check the footnote, sorry.

⁷ He’s an old-school Popovich forward that can have his potential squeezed out the most while he is young unlike a Bruce Bowen. I think the Spurs will get the most out of Leonard. *Correction, RJ was not amnestied and is the starting small forward, but Leonard should still be good. 

⁸ I like Allen a lot, but Mayo is too talented to not be starting over him.

⁹ I really hope the Warriors trade for Gay, and OJ Mayo. If OJ Mayo was worth Josh McRoberts and a 2^nd rounder last season, can we offer Louis Amundson, Al Thornton & a 2^nd rounder then match Monta straight up for Gay? I hope so.  

¹⁰ If CP3 became a Laker without them having to give up Andrew Bynum, there’s no doubt Dwight Howard would be donning purple and yellow on opening day.

¹¹ I was upset in an earlier post about him coming off the bench for another season, but it will be fine because he won’t be sitting on the bench when the games are on the line anyways.

¹² He lost 50lbs this offseason and he looks great. Healthy, lean, and yolked.

¹³ For the past two seasons, I have not been convinced that the Thunder were ready for where they ended their seasons. Two years ago, I thought they were a year away from the playoffs. They ended up losing to the Lakers in 6, but it put them on the map. Last season, I thought they were ready to win one series, but they ended up losing to the Mavs in the Western Conference Finals. They always exceed expectations, and I hope they do it again this season.

¹⁴ Who would’ve thought Sisqo’s inspiration on Chris Brown would then lead to a bunch of black athletes thinking blonde hair was a good look.

¹⁵ They’ll probably expect the same production DeShawn Stevenson gave them from Jones. Jason Terry and Vince Carter will receive the bulk of the minutes at shooting guard.

¹⁶ It’s crazy how Mark Cuban has become such an excellent spender these past few seasons after years of overpaying for guys like Eric Dampier and Nick Van Exel.

¹⁷ Carter = Butler, Jones = Stevenson, & Beaubois = Barea

¹⁸ That first-round pick will be a late 1^st rounder and by my rankings the 29^th pick anyways. Yeah it’s a strong draft, but it’s still a guaranteed contract for a player who is not guaranteed to produce.

¹⁹ Small Ball: (Marion/Odom/Nowitzki), Big: (Odom/Nowitzki/Haywood), Fast: (Carter/Marion/Odom)

Season Preview: Champagne Sippers (Part 3)

Sorry for the delayed posting. I’ve been busy the past few days and unable to get internet. Today will be the season previews of the top teams in both conferences.  Enjoy: 

8. Philadelphia Sixers  

Starting 5: Jrue Holiday (PG), Evan Turner (SG), Andre Iguodala (SF), Elton Brand (PF), Spencer Hawes (C)

Breakout Player & Player to Watch: Evan Turner – Expectations were extremely high for him in his rookie year and he was kind of a letdown. He did show some upside in a couple of games and I expect him to have the starting job coming into this year. Playing time is the difference for his progression.

Overview: The current Sixers team is almost exactly the same as last season; the difference for the Sixers this season is that the other playoff teams in the East last season got better. As mentioned, Evan Turner should be a lot better this season and Jrue Holiday as well. There is also room for Andre Iguodala to still get better. He still isn’t good enough to be considered a franchise player. Elton Brand will be a year older and his game may dip dramatically, but it should not be a big issue as the other young guys like Thaddeus Young, Mo Speights and Nikola Vucevic will pick up his slack. Overall this Sixers team is still a playoff team, but the worst of the bunch.  

Season Predicition: (33-33) = 1^st round Playoff exit to the 2^nd best team in the East and another wasted year of Doug Collins coaching when he should actually be Kevin Harlan’s broadcasting partner :(

 

7. Indiana Pacers  

Starting 5: Darren Collison (PG), Paul George (SG), Danny Granger (SF), David West (PF), Roy Hibbert (C)

Breakout Player: Darren Collison – The man in charge of running one of the up-and-coming teams of the league, he should definitely bounce back from a subpar sophomore season. He has a ton of weapons around him and it should help make the game easier for him. If he can perform the way he did during his rookie season, filling in for an injured Chris Paul, the Pacers may be a lot better than their current ranking.

Player to Watch: Paul George – He’s one of the players that I’m really excited to watch this season. There’s still a lot of mystery to him because he wasn’t really that impressive in his college days at Fresno State, but by the time he was drafted, his stock sky-rocketed, and he was getting comparisons to Tracy McGrady. He didn’t play much his rookie year, but it seems like the starting shooting guard spot is up for grabs and unless George Hill claims it, I’m looking forward to watching the second coming of T-Mac get plenty of minutes this year. I’m crossing my fingers, but there’s no guarantee.

 

Overview: I really like this Pacers team, and I was ecstatic when they signed David West because for the past two seasons I had been thinking he would be a perfect fit for their team¹ When I look at the potential of their starting 5, I see a team that no top seed in the East wants to face come playoff time. They now have one of the best front courts in the league. Roy Hibbert who I thought would be a bust has become one of the more promising centers in the league. Danny Granger will continue to score and I could care less about the concerns of David West returning from a torn ACL, he will be fine. He’ll at least be a 15 & 10 guy. I love the George Hill acquisition and he’ll be excellent coming off the bench. The two players that can make them the true threat I believe they can be are the two guys I’ve already mentioned, Darren Collison and Paul George. There shouldn’t be any concerns about perimeter and post scoring, as Granger and West will provide that, Hibbert should anchor the D, but how the backcourt plays this season will set the course for the type of team we’ll see.
     

Season Prediction: (34-32) = A thrilling rematch of last season’s 1^st round match-up going the distance, but resulting in a trip home for these guys. The development of Collison and George help the team leap frog a couple of fading teams into the top 4 of the East next season.

6. Orlando Magic 

Starting 5: Jameer Nelson (PG), Jason Richardson (SG), Hedo Turkoglu (SF), Ryan Anderson (PF), Dwight Howard (C)

Breakout Player: Ryan Anderson – I never understood why Ryan Anderson was a double-double machine during his days at Berkeley. He looked and still looks like an average white guy except for the fact that he’s 6’10. Yet, Ryan Anderson continues to impress in the NBA. By season’s end he established himself as a starter on the team and had some performances that were quite impressive. Anderson is a Euro-style big man that can step out and hit the three, but he is also able to bang in the post and grab rebounds. He’s a pretty good rebounder. Given the opportunity to start at the beginning of this season, Anderson should be able to prove himself early and put up better numbers.    

Player to Watch: Earl Clark – I really don’t know why I have Earl Clark as a player to watch. Mainly cause Hedo sucks and Clark is the backup? He’s young and I remember his one season in Louisville where he was a beast, so I believe he can step up and possibly show why he was a mid-1^st round draft pick in 2009. Josh wanna talk about Earl or someone else on their team??

Overview: It’s kind of hard to breakdown the Magic with so many uncertainties regarding Dwight Howard and his remaining tenure with the team. There is no doubt Dwight wants out, but the Magic are still uncertain of what they want. They opened the market for Howard a few weeks back, and there were legitimate deals on the table ready to be completed. Then the Magic pulled Howard off the market just last week. As of now, the Magic are going to try and win a championship with Howard while testing Howard’s market value throughout the season. If this is the team built around Howard contending for a title, it won’t be enough.  At best, they could be 4^th in the East, but with too much uncertainty of how everyone will play, they drop to 6^th this season. They don’t have much upside and their core besides Howard and maybe Jameer Nelson is a bunch of veterans with their best days behind them (J-Rich & Hedo). Even if they were all to miraculously have their best seasons this year, it still wouldn’t be enough to beat the best the East has to offer. Lastly, it is not a given that Howard will play hard. He already is upset with the front office and he and Stan Van Gundy aren’t really the best of friends. He really doesn’t have to play hard if he doesn’t want to. If he does indeed play poorly it only hurts the Magic when they are finally forced to trade their disgruntled star for less than his full value. The Magic should not risk losing a full value trade for someone who will eventually leave.   

   

Season Prediction: (36-30) = Orlando losing Dwight Howard and getting nothing in return because Otis Smith was insistent on convincing Howard to stay instead of trading him at the deadline. Howard will head to Los Angeles and his departure will hurt the Magic for the next few seasons the same way Shaq’s departure hurt them.

 5. Atlanta Hawks  

Starting 5: Jeff Teague (PG), Joe Johnson (SG), Marvin Williams (SF), Josh Smith (PF), Al Horford (C)

Breakout Player: Jeff Teague - After his impressive performance in the playoffs last season, a lot of people are expecting big things from Teague this season. Kirk Hinrich will miss the first few months of the season giving Teague the starting job without any competition. He’s more of a combo guard with a score-first mentality that will have to change. He will have to learn to be a better distributor on a team who already has enough score-first players.²  Josh is a fan of his upside for the season and I think that’s a good enough blessing to expect great things from him. 

Player to Watch: Joe Johnson – In all honesty, Joe Johnson doesn’t deserve all the criticism he gets for being overpaid and overrated. I understand since he has gotten to Atlanta he has become a major ball-hog who scores 20+ a game because he takes 25 shots a game. He has also taken over $200 million from this franchise since he was traded to Atlanta and was a clear example for the players to use against the owners during the lockout regarding their stupidity of handing out large contracts to players undeserving of them. Is Johnson really the one to blame though? If someone offered you $20 million a season to play basketball even though you don’t deserve it, wouldn’t you take it? It’s that person’s fault for offering the contract. Lastly, if you are your team’s best offensive weapon and you play with a bunch of talented guys that don’t know how to play to their potential ³ wouldn’t you rather depend on yourself to get the job done? It’s J-Smoove’s fault he doesn’t know how to play like LeBron, not Johnson’s. Joe Johnson is a very good player. He has been an all-star the past few seasons, and besides last year, very deserving of being one for each of those seasons. He is still the most important player to this team, and how he plays determines where the Hawks stand in the East.  

   

Overview: The Hawks for the past few seasons have had the potential to be a legitimate force in the East, but every season they stay stuck in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff standings. They have all the right pieces to be great and their core besides Joe Johnson is still young. Al Horford is starting to come into his own and there is plenty of hope for the rise of Jeff Teague. Joe Johnson will remain the same and their bench consists of a decent group of players (T-Mac, Marvin Williams, Zaza Pachulia, etc.). The guy that has the ability to take this team over-the-top is Josh Smith. He can be a top 10 player in this league if he wants to be. He needs an improved jumper, a more aggressive attitude on the offensive end, and a better grasp of his abilities. He just never seems to understand what it takes to be great when it’s all there for him. If he can finally play to his full potential, the Hawks can be a force to be reckoned with. The Hawks can match up with any team in the league. They can play uptempo or half-court basketball. They have the right players for a championship team, but where their season ends will be dependent on how far J-Smoove’s game has developed this season and how much he asserts himself as the leader of this team.  

Season Prediction (40-26) = Another disappointing season in the ATL resulting in a first-round playoff exit to the team ranked just above them. Joe Johnson will be amnestied and sign with the Knicks for a mid-level contract and Steve Nash will join him in the Big Apple as well. 

4. Boston Celtics  

Starting 5: Rajon Rondo (PG), Ray Allen (SG), Paul Pierce (SF), Kevin Garnett (PF), Jermaine O’Neal (C)

Breakout Player: No One – The Celtics are who we thought they were and that is old. No one on this team will have a better season than expected, but I’m pretty sure Celtic-nation hopes KG has one vintage beast KG season that has been extinct for three years already. Maybe Avery Bradley? Jujuan Johnson? E’Twaun Moore? Naah.

Player to Watch: Brandon Bass – With Jeff Green missing the entire season with a heart condition, and Jermaine O’Neal’s health always being a concern, Bass’s contributions to the team this season will be critical. He’s always been a good player wherever he goes, but the Celtics need him to be at best...very good? They need everything their past bench bigs have been in one player (think Leon Powe + Glenn Davis). That means a ton of hustle, solid mid-range shooting, crying, and a lot of saliva.

  

Overview: Considered the final run for the Celtics, I am slowly losing hope in them with each day before the season tips off. That final run may be over before it even started. The Celtics have had a tumultuous offseason, unable to trade for Chris Paul, unable to sign David West, and losing Jeff Green, who was expected to have a breakout season for them. Danny Ainge’s aggressiveness to get rid of Rajon Rondo and the failure of executing a trade really hurts the team. An unhappy Rondo is not going to benefit the C’s at all and if he remains on the team, they will need him to be spectacular. Having him pissed all season won’t inspire him to prove Ainge wrong. Rondo may end up slacking and force his way out of Boston. The Celtics’ veteran leadership and chemistry is still existent and that may be what prevents Rondo from quitting on his team. I can’t see him letting those guys down. The most important ingredient to a championship run is something I have believed in since 2008 when their superteam formed and I still believe in this now: the Celtics will only go as far as Kevin Garnett takes them. As long as Kevin Garnett performs to the best of his abilities, the Celtics still have a chance. When KG plays with that intensity that makes him the biggest douche on the planet he is at his best. It won’t matter as much whether the team has Rajon Rondo running the offense or Avery Bradley. If Garnett decides to work his defenders in the post this year (post fade-away jumper = unstoppable or hook shot) instead of set jumpers from 15, plays with a ferocity present in the T-Wolves’ days, and barks at all opponents calling Charlie Villanueva a “cancer patient” again,  then the C’s will be in good shape. The lockout can be detrimental and beneficial to the C’s. They’ll be well-rested coming into the season and having a core that has played together for three consecutive seasons they can get into the flow of playing high-quality basketball faster than other teams. However, the wear-and-tear of a shortened schedule consisting of back-to-back-to-backs will also cost the team some games this year. ⁴ They’re better suited for the Playoffs but a ranking of 4^th in the East may already be pretty high for these guys. It’s given due to respect for who they were in the past. When the season plays out, they could definitely fall out of the top 5 in the East. The one thing that keeps me believing they can still make a run come playoff time is that veteran core of Pierce, Allen, and Garnett. They will keep everything together. There is too much pride and leadership on this team to allow Rondo and other issues to ruin the season. (Who am I kidding, the Celtics are screwed…sorry Bill!)

Season Prediction: (40-26) = They will beat the Hawks in 7, but against that 1^st ranked team, that series will get ugly. The season will conclude with KG’s retirement, Doc River’s retirement, and Ray Allen’s departure to Miami thus beginning the rebuilding process. This may all change if they make these trades I mentioned in the previous post thanks to Kevin McHale magic and the Hornets. In summary a new roster: (S5: J. Jack, K. Martin, P. Pierce, L. Scola, K. Garnett Bench: T. Ariza, E. Okafor, T. Williams, etc.)

3. New York Knicks  

Starting 5 – Toney Douglas (PG), Landry Fields (SG),Carmelo  Anthony (SF), Amare Stoudemire (PF), Tyson Chandler (C)

Breakout Player: Carmelo Anthony – Melo will have to become more than just an all-world scorer if he wants the Knicks to be legitimate title contenders. He will be the scoring champ this year, but he will also be a much better defender, rebounder,⁵ and Mike D’Antoni has plans to run the offense through him, making him more of a playmaker now that Chauncey Billups is gone. Melo has been over-hyped and been given way too much respect as an elite player his whole career, when in actuality he has only been the best scorer in the league and nothing else. This is the year though, with added responsibility he will be on the 1^st team all-NBA and in the MVP discussion when the season is over

Player to Watch: Toney Douglas – Before the Knicks waived Chauncey Billups to make cap space available to sign Tyson Chandler, I had Landry Fields as the player to watch. He’ll have to play much better than the way he played at the end of last season when he disappeared after the Knicks acquired Melo. If he is to slip, look for Iman Schumpert to possibly take his starting spot. Douglas now becomes the player to watch though. While Mike Bibby offers veteran experience, he is no longer the Mike Bibby I grew up admiring and at best, he is a sixth man on a good team a la the New York Knicks. Baron Davis is just…fat every season. I know everyone says when his head and heart are in the game, he’s one of the best in the league, but it’s been five years and 50 lbs. since we saw that Baron. What makes me think he will change? Douglas on the other hand has potential to win the hearts of all the fans at the Garden as the team’s starting point guard of the future. He is an explosive scorer, but he will have to learn to be a distributor as well. His role on the team will be increased and he will either thrive or crack under the added pressure of playing in the Big Apple.

Overview: The addition of Tyson Chandler really hurts the Knicks in the future. It means they no longer have cap space to attempt to sign Deron Williams or Dwight Howard in the offseason, but his acquisition is huge for them this year. Chandler is exactly what the Knicks need. The team is filled with terrible defenders and he will protect the paint when his teammates get beat on D, probably resulting in quite a few disqualifications (foul outs) this season. Regardless, his presence alone makes the Knicks a much better team. He’ll also be able to score many easy buckets in the uptempo offense. STAT will be STAT, and as I mentioned, Melo will be better than he’s ever been. The shooting guard position is a little iffy, but the x-factor is most certainly Toney Douglas and how he runs the team will be very important to the teams’ success. The fact that they’ve invested on improving their defense makes me believe they are headed in the right direction for this season.  I’m just not too sure if they planned accordingly for the future… 

Season Prediciton: (42 -24) = Spike boasting about beating the Pacers in the playoffs, but crying about losing to Jordan’s team in the Conference Finals again, excuse me Rose’s team. The Knicks will also amnesty Tyson Chandler in the offseason and attempt to sign Dwight Howard or Deron Williams, failing and going to Plan B which I mentioned earlier, a reunion of the old Phoenix Suns (including Q & Boris Diaw & hopefully Shawn Marion too) + Carmelo.

     

2. Chicago Bulls 

Starting 5:  Derrick Rose (PG), Richard Hamilton (SG), Luol Deng (SF), Carlos Boozer (PF), Joakim Noah (C)

Breakout Player: Joakim Noah – He might not be the prettiest player in the league or have the prettiest game, but he is one of the most valuable centers in the league. He does all the dirty work, plays stellar defense, and doesn’t need recognition for his work. He’s unselfish and even without any offensive skill, he is deserving of being one of the highest-paid centers in the league. He has the “Tyson Chandler effect” where he controls the game on the defensive end and his value is based purely on that. He’s gotten better each season on the boards and defense, but he will have to be much better on the offensive end this year. Last season in the Conference Finals against the Heat, Derrick Rose was double-teamed often by the centers of the Heat because Noah could not hit a mid-range jumper. That inability to score closed driving lanes for Rose and hurt the Bulls offensively. I watched Noah play in the FIBA tournament this summer and he was very aggressive on the offensive end, which he needs to be on the Bulls. If he worked on his shot too, it will allow the Bulls to space the floor and make Derrick Rose even harder to defend.       

Player to Watch: Richard Hamilton – The Bulls had been coveting him since last year’s trade deadline and they now have their perfect fit at shooting guard. Rip has not played meaningful basketball and has coasted through games for the past three seasons, but history has shown when he has something to play for, he can be an all-star shooting guard in the league. I don’t expect him to be on that all-star level, but I do expect him to be a major upgrade from Keith Bogans. He has always been an underrated defender and I don’t think that mid-range jumper has gone anywhere. Hamilton will have to become Derrick Rose’s sidekick in scoring. That’s the reason they signed him.

Overview: From reading about the two previous guys and the type of contributions they need to provide for the team this season, it is pretty clear, the Chicago Bulls need a lot of offensive improvement from last season. Their defense is one of the best in the league and as long as Joakim Noah patrols the paint and Derrick Rose lurks on the perimeter, that won’t change. The reason they lost to the Heat last season was because they only had one playmaker in Derrick Rose. I don’t think Rip will be a great playmaker, but he will be able to take some pressure off Rose to do everything by hitting the open shots he creates. Luol Deng does not get enough credit for being the glue guy of the team. He plays a ton of minutes, does a great job guarding the LeBrons, Kobes, and Durants of the league, and is consistent on a nightly basis. Carlos Boozer should have a much better season and I don’t believe his game actually dipped, but rather he had a difficult time adjusting to a new team after starting late due to an injury.  I’ve already mentioned Noah. Their bench is pretty solid. I love Taj Gibson and he makes Boozer expendable. CJ Watson is a prototype back-up point guard, and my x-factor for this team is Ronnie Brewer. If the Bulls can get the Utah Jazz-version of Brewer then he can really help the team. In the end, I still don’t think the Bulls have enough to beat the Heat. Derrick Rose still needs a better sidekick. It’s not Rip, and Boozer fits better in a Chris Bosh-role (so does Taj Gibson making Boozer the trade piece) on this team. Rose needs a Pippen, an explosive wing that can do everything (i.e. Rudy Gay, Andre Iguodala). If the front office can get Rose that player, then the Bulls can seriously compete with the Heat. Of course acquiring that center in Orlando wouldn’t hurt either.   

Season Prediction: (48-18) = Being almost there, but not quite, losing in a more competitive series against the Heat in 6. Chicago also becomes a serious destination for Dwight Howard if he isn’t trade by this season’s deadline to either the Nets or Lakers.

1. Miami Heat 

Starting 5: Mario Chalmers (PG), Dwyane Wade (SG), Lebron James (SF), Chris Bosh (PF), Joel Anthony (C)

Breakout Player: Mario Chalmers – One of the more impressive players of the Finals last year, he is an incredible perimeter defender, someone who is not afraid of pressure,  and someone able to make big plays in the clutch. He will have to hit the open three when Bron or Wade drives and he will have the toughest task of defending the Chris Paul’s, Derrick Rose’s, and Russell Westbrook’s  of the league on a nightly basis. I am confident that Chalmers will be able to perform both those tasks very well.

Player to Watch: Chris Bosh – If Bosh is a man, hopefully he shows it this season. Expectations were high on him last year and it was well-deserved. When LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are your teammates, and you were considered a top-10 player in the league, there are no excuses to not put up 20-15 every night. Bosh started to play better towards the end of the year and was actually the Heat’s best player in the Finals. While all the hype on Bosh has died down coming into the year, I expect Bosh to be much better this year. He will be more comfortable this season with his role, putting less emphasis on being a tough guy and just being himself, playing the way people expected him to play last year. He will have a great year and reestablish himself as a top power forward in the game. He has to if the Heat want to win their first title.

Overview:  Alright, I hate to say it, but this will be the year the Heat get it done. Think about this, LeBron is a season away from being in the league for a decade. He hasn’t even hit his prime yet, but a decade in the league is a long time and he still has not won a title with all his talent! He has to win one sooner than later, and I think it’s now. Dwyane Wade is not getting any younger and he is in the prime of his career. Bosh will be a lot better this year and the role players just have to play to their roles and they will be fine (Chalmers plays d & hit 3’s. Anthony grabs boards & block shots). Pat Riley will probably get this team a better center ⁶ eventually, possibly a point guard with experience,⁷ and the bench does need an upgrade besides Shane Battier and Udonis Haslem which will probably be addressed with a veteran cut before the playoff-roster deadline. Even if the Heat were to stick with this team, I think it is more than enough to win a championship. If there was an 82-game season, I would have been bold enough to predict a season of 73-9 with these guys. I think they would have been and will be that good in a shortened 66-game season.⁸  These guys should have had enough of being the butt of everyone’s jokes for an extended offseason and when this season is over, they should have the last laugh.   

Season Prediction (56-10) = The 1^st championship in South Beach and the death of basketball…just kidding. It will be great for the NBA and if the Heat lose, that would be great for the NBA too. As long as the Heat are involved for an entire NBA season the league will thrive. I think it’s finally time for LeBron to come through however, so I have him and his team beating _______(they’ll be mentioned tomorrow) in 5, but it’s never a guarantee with LeBron. I can 100% guarantee this prediction though: LeBron’s hairline receding another inch before next season. By the time his career is over, his headband will be worn the way Josh Howard wears it, but not for style-purposes.

Footnotes:

¹ Who would you rather have taking 15-foot jumpers, West or Josh McRoberts? Troy Murphy? 

² Joe Johnson, Joe Johnson, and Joe Johnson 
³ Marvin Williams & freaking Josh Smith! He can be a poor man's LeBron and it pisses me off and it should piss all basketball fans off that he doesn't work to be that.
⁴ Doc will rest Allen, Pierce, and KG in at least one of those games. 
⁵ Always been an excellent rebounder, needs to get in the paint and do more of it.
⁶ Not Eddy Curry
⁷ Steve Nash!!! Please!!! Steve Nash!!!

⁸  2 of the top 3 players in the league, a top 5 power forward, it should be easy.