Monday, May 16, 2011

Playoff Previews: Conference Finals

It's been a crazy Playoffs. It's the beginning of a new era in the NBA. Let's see how the Final Four fair:

Western Conference Finals 
2) Dallas Mavericks vs. 4) Oklahoma City Thunder
The Dallas Mavericks come into this series with a lot of momentum and rest after their beat down of the Los Angeles Lakers. The rest however can have two effects on the team. It can either be very beneficial for a veteran team like the Mavs in need of it or it can be damaging towards that momentum the Mavs had. I think that we'll see the Mavs a little rusty at the start of Game 1 but the long break won't have a huge effect. Zach Randolph had his way with Serge Ibaka in the Conference Semis, and Dirk Nowitzki should be able to do the same. He may even be a more difficult cover. Of course, the one aspect of the Mavs that made them so great in the series against the Lakers that will have to be present in this series as well is three-point shooting. If Jason Terry and Peja Stojakovic can continue shooting the lights out, there is no way this team loses the series. The Mavs are deep and very experienced which will definitely give them an advantage over the Thunder, and they have the "Little Leprechaun of Luck," J.J. Barea.
 
As for the Oklahoma City Thunder, they come off a tough series with the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies deserve a lot of credit for their "never quit" attitude, but that series shouldn't have been as difficult as it was for the Thunder. Often at times, the Thunder showed brilliance because of their limitless talent, but they failed to execute on numerous occasions due to their lack of experience. They can be so much better yet their youth holds them back from what their capable of doing. With all that said however, they've still made it to the Western Conference Finals and they are very dangerous. They're underdogs in this series, but the way I see it, they've overachieved and they're playing with house money with nothing to lose. How they play against the Mavs in this series will most likely be exactly the same as the series against the Grizzlies but with added pressure that the Thunder shouldn't worry about. Kevin Durant will have brilliant games like game 7 Sunday, and he'll probably give a stinker at some point in the series. Perkins and Ibaka will continue to be gritty and physical and Nick Collison should be able to aggravate Dirk a little. James Harden will continue to shoot the ball well and hopefully the rest of bench will continue its solid play.   

Key Players: Russell Westbrook (OKC): Russ is going to have to be the main guy in this series. In these Playoffs, Jason Kidd has not matched up against a young, athletic guard yet, and Westbrook can and will cause a ton of defensive problems for the Mavs. However, he cannot lose his head and be selfish getting caught up with taking jumpers and playing too fast and out of control. All he has to do is attack with a controlled pace and continue to get to the rim. If he can play the way he had in the final games of the series against the Grizzlies, Russ can be capable of getting triple-doubles every game this series. He can be the guy getting the spotlight instead of KD in this series, but he just needs to do it correctly.

Shawn Marion (DAL): I think he's been one of the most underrated players for the Mavs in their Playoff run and his versatility to play the 3 or 4 allows the Mavs to play different rotations (small ball for 3s, big for D, etc.) to their advantage. His main task in this series is to slow down Kevin Durant and tire him out on the other end being a small offensive factor as well. He's been locking down the opposing teams' best wing scorers, and the Mavs are depending on him to slow down the league's scoring champ this series.    

I haven't predicted too many series correctly this year, and I hope I'm wrong again on this one. I have to give the edge to the Mavericks only because of home-court advantage. I really don't believe either team has an edge, and I think this series will actually be better than the Bulls-Heat series. Please KD, prove me wrong.

Series: (4-3) - Dallas Mavericks 

Eastern Conference Finals
1) Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat
No Boston? No problem. This will be an excellent series regardless of what happened in Game 1. You can discredit the series against the Celtics because as great as the Heat were, the C's were just bad and old. The series was an ass-whopping provided by the Heat and sure the Heat can celebrate about it, but it was only advancing past the second round. However, that series did bring out a lot of positives for Miami. It starts with D-Wade and LeBron playing at their highest level of basketball and Chris Bosh is starting to come along as well. After watching Game 1, I could be really discouraged about the Heat and their poor offense, but there's no reason for that. The Heat still have LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, and they're still capable of taking over games any night.

Before Game 1, everyone had the Heat as a heavy favorite and many forgot how good the Bulls really were. This was the team with the best record in the regular season and they play suffocating defense. As I watch them more and more, they remind me a lot of the 2001 Philadelphia 76ers, with better compliments for its superstar. D-Rose is gonna be a nightmare to guard for Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers and their defense will make it difficult for Bron and Wade to penetrate and get whatever they want. Keith Bogans and Kyle Korver are going to have to hit their threes, the bench will have to continue to dominate like Game 1, and Joakim Noah is going to have to be a beast inside, of course defensively, but offensively as well. 

Key Players: Carlos Boozer (CHI): As important as Derrick Rose is to the Bulls, Boozer is just as important in the series, and maybe even more important in this series. He's been missing in these playoffs, and this is his time to pick up the slack. D-Rose can't do it by himself and Carlos Boozer needs to score. He cannot be outplayed by Chris Bosh and he needs to put up a stat line of 20 points and 12 rebounds a game. In a supposed perimeter-oriented series, he will have to be the x-factor inside and be dominant. It's his time to prove he was worth the big bucks this offseason.

LeBron James (MIA): So he beat the Celtics, and he finally admitted he couldn't do it without Bosh and Wade, finally offering a sincere apology to Cleveland. However, he still hasn't accomplished anything. He's been further in his career already and he can't just settle with beating the C's. He has the compliments now and it's up to him to take his talent to an even higher level in this series and through the rest of the playoffs. Kobe is gone, the Celtics are gone, and now is his chance to take the spotlight and really show the league what he's capable of doing. Triple-doubles or bust for LeBron in this series.

This series will be a continual grind throughout. Both teams are excellent on defense and the edge for each game will be decided by whoever controls the tempo. In the end, I will still give an edge to the Heat, slightly, mainly because they have two superstars in D-Wade and LeBron and because of what they're capable of.  If they can have performances similar to the ones against the Celtics and live up to their potential, the only thing stopping the Heat would be themselves regardless of how great the Bulls defense is.

Series: (4-2) - Miami Heat     

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