Playoff Previews (2012): Round 1

Playoffs have started, 4 games today, 40 games in 40 nights!! Oh it's an exciting time of the year, but some tough injuries have occurred already, let's see how the 1st round will play out as a result.

Eastern Conference 

 

1. Chicago Bulls vs. 8. Philadelphia Sixers

This should not have been a very competitive series, but now with Derrick Rose tearing his acl this series may become more interesting than expected. While D-Rose's injury wipes out any chance the team has of making the Finals, they will be fine in this series. The Sixers are really not that good and the Bulls were able to win 50+ games this year without Rose being the Rose we're accustomed to. For this series, CJ Watson will be fine as a replacement and the Bulls should still not face any problems. Look for Richard Hamilton to now become a much bigger focal point of the offense, Luol Deng to become the leader once again, and even expect surprise performances from John Lucas III. It's really unfortunate for such a young and talented star like D-Rose to have an injury that is surely to alter his playing style and cost him that explosiveness he is known so well for in the future. Tough luck for Bull fans and their promising season, and most importnatly tough luck for all NBA fans. The basketball gods unforgiving terror has struck us again and it is definitely a bunch of bullshit.

Series: Chicago Bulls (4-1)

 

4. Boston Celtics vs. 5 Atlanta Hawks   

This is it. The final run, the last push for 18 with the Big 4 and if there is any team licking their chops more than the Heat yesterday after hearing of the Rose injury, it is the Boston Celtics. The C's have done what it takes to put a team together to return to the Finals for one more time, and with the changing tides of these playoffs, the C's now find themselves with a potential favorable match-up in the next round if they can get by the Hawks. That being said, the Hawks will not be an easy out whatsoever and they will push the Celtics to the brink of elimination. The Hawks have had a very good season without the presence of Al Horford and as much crap as people have given to Joe Johnson and Josh Smith the past few years, both players have stepped up their roles as leaders this year, and have played at very high levels. Most importantly Josh Smith may finally get it and it's about time. They have a closer, athleticism, Ivan the Terrible, and three point shooting while the Celtics have to worry about injuries and high expectations. I believe the Celtics are the better team, but the Hawks are no pushovers. I'll take experience over mediocrity, and I'll take the luck of the Irish in 7.

Series: Boston Celtics (4-3)

2. Miami Heat vs. 7. New York Knicks

Alright look, this series is supposed to be great simply because of all the big names, it's Knicks/Heat like the late 90s, and both teams are super fun to watch, but let's be honest here. The Knicks do not stand a chance in this series at all, and we were all witnesses of it yesterday, no pun intended. The Knicks are a pretty dysfunctional bunch and until they hire Phil Jackson next year perhaps, this season is all smoke screens. They have had way too many issues this year to beat the Heat even though on paper they look like a great team, the chemistry is lacking, and they are just way too inconsistent to be a legitimate threat. As for the Heat they look ready to return to the finals and win their first championship. Lebron looked great and the team just looks ready this year to dominate the playoffs. They should have no worries in this series (the Knicks will make it interesting though) and should not have any later on in these playoffs. They impressed me a bunch yesterday. Then again we have not reached the fourth quarter of the entire season just yet so the verdict is still out on Bron Bron and the Heat. 

Lastly, a crazy yet sad observation from yesterday's game: Remember when Iman Shumpert injured his knee in the first game of the season and cheated a torn acl with an mcl sprain? Well in the first game of the second season, the basketball gods got him as payback. It really is unfortunate... 

    

Series: Miami Heat (4-2)

3. Indiana Pacers vs. 6. Orlando Magic   

This series is not very interesting and it's great that most of their games will be on NBA TV and we won't miss much. The Pacers really are not that fun to watch and their inexperience in big games will be the reason the Dwight Howard-less Magic will make this series actually very good. As we saw yesterday, there is no issue for them with Big Baby at center, and he has been great since replacing Howard. They also displayed their three point arsenal which will make them a tough match-up. It is pretty phony how Dwight quit on his team this year because with him, they could have beaten the Pacers easily. 
I'm not going to talk about the Pacers because let's be honest there really isn't much to talk about. They're just ok, but like I've said for awhile, wait till next year for these guys when they get Eric Gordon then they'll be ready to win. I'm going with my gut for this series and picking the trey game. Magic in 7.

Series: Orlando Magic (4-3)

Western Conference

1. San Antonio Spurs vs. 8. Utah Jazz

This is going to be a much tougher series for the Spurs than most fans expect. The Spurs have had a hell of a season and their depth and mix of experience and youth make them a much better team than last year and far less vulnerable from being upset by an 8-seed. The Spurs will win the series, but the Jazz are much better than you think. Old Devin Harris is back, Gordon Hayward can shoot, and when they play the 3x3 they can cause some serious match-up problems and live off the boards. I really like this Jazz team, but they'll come up short of the upset.

Series: San Antonio Spurs (4-2)

4. Memphis Grizzlies vs. 5. LA Clippers

This is a series that I really cannot give an edge to either team. I believe that both teams are legitimate title contenders and two teams that no one wants to face. Fortunately for those other teams, they won't have to worry about one of them as they'll have to fight to eliminate each other. I'll give the edge to the Grizzles cause I've liked them all season and I just love how they can match up with any team and play any style. They also have the super x-factor that they didn't have last year, an all-star closer in Rudy Gay. Given the success of the team last year without Gay, just imagine them with him this year. He's replacing Shane Battier's role! Yeah 25 year old Rudy Gay for 62 year old Shane Battier (2:48). The Clippers in my opinion are actually not as scary as I think they are because they're actually inexperienced for the playoffs besides Christopher Paul and realistically they only give fits to one team and that's the Thunder. It will be a hard fought series and the only deciding factor I used for determining the winner is home-court advantage. Therefore advantage Grizzlies. 

Series: Memphis Grizzlies (4-3)

 2. OKC Thunder vs. 7. Dallas Mavericks

I'm going to avoid jinxing my team by being humble and saying the Mavericks really worry me, Dirk Nowitzki is another animal in the playoffs, and they can actually beat the Thunder if they are not careful as we saw last night. They are the defending NBA champions if we all forgot, and they will not make it easy for the Thunder. I will just hope that we find a way to guard Dirk and not allow Jason Terry to get going from three, and hopefully we'll shoot better from here on out. We were lucky to steal last night's game and we need to play better from the get-go. I still have Thunder taking this series, but it will be tough.

Series: Oklahoma City Thunder (4-2)

3. LA Lakers vs. 6. Denver Nuggets

If I had to pick a favorite in the West right now, gun to my head, and I had to pick someone, I am choosing the Lakers. You can't trust the Thunder down the stretch, the Spurs are still old, Clippers and Grizzlies are dark horses, and the Mavericks don't care (they just want D-Will). As much as I hate to say it, the Lakers are clicking at the perfect time and with a recharged Kobe, Gasol hitting threes, and Bynum working his way to challenging Dwight Howard for the #1 spot who cares if Ron Jon Jones-Artest is suspended for six playoff games. Devin Ebanks can play and Jordan Hill is alive folks. This year's playoffs give me a feel that we're heading back to the old days in the west where a Spurs/Lakers match-up in the conference finals is more than likely. The Nuggets are a good team with a ton of depth, but they stand no chance against the Lakers.

Series: Los Angeles Lakers (4-1)   

Notes: NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals – The defending champs are the best team in the National League. They lost the face of their franchise, arguably the best hitter in his era, Albert Pujols. But they bring back a line-up with Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and hometown hero David Freese, 2-5. Rafael Furcal is looking rejuvenated at the top of that line-up and what ever they can get out of Jon Jay, Yadier Molina, and their second baseman will just be a plus. Berkman has been hurt the last week and Matt Carpenter has filled in nicely for him, but if Berkman needs to sit out an extended period of time, Carpenter is not going to cut it and look for the Cardinals to bring up Matt Adams to play first base. Their pitching has been very good too. Except for Adam Wainwright, all of their starters have an ERA under 3.00. Their starters have had success so far this season without their ace, Chris Carpenter, throwing a single pitch this year. Wainwright has not been the same this year, but he is coming off an injury so it will take him some time. The greatest challenge for new manager Mike Matheny is which one of his starters will he take out of the rotation once Carpenter comes back. It was suppose to be rookie Lance Lynn, but with his 4-0 and 1.33 ERA in his 4 starts, it's going to be hard to put him back in the bullpen. But overall, in a weaker senior circuit the Cardinals are the best team and I see them as the favorites to make it back to the World Series.

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers lost their protection behind Ryan Braun in Prince Fielder. They attempted to replace Fielder with Aramis Ramirez and are hoping to get good production from Matt Gamel. Last season with Fielder, it looked like they were maybe 1 good starting pitcher - to team up with Zach Greinke - away from a deep run into the playoffs. But this season, it just seems like they have taken a step backwards. Corey Hart is having a good start to the season, but every year he gets hurt and misses 20+ games. The Brew Crew were expecting big things from Ramirez and Rickie Weeks, but they are hitting .191 and .189 between the two of them. Weeks is striking out in 33% of his at-bats and that's just got going to cut it. And you have to think that all this steroid drama in the off season has contributed to Braun's slow start. Yes they are 9-9, but 7 of their 9 wins have come against the Cubs, Pirates, and Dodgers (like I've said before, I don't believe they are as good as their record). Their pitching has also started off slowly. Greinke hasn't been good lately, which is surprising because this is a contract year. But this might be the perfect time for the Brewers to sign him to an extension. They can use this time to get a little bit of a discount because even though Greinke hasn't started strong, he still will be one of the top 10 pitchers in the league. I don't see this team being good enough to compete with the Cardinals for the division title, they could be in the race for one of the two wild card spots, but ultimately they are going to miss out on the playoffs.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds have a lot of potential and this is a make or break year for manager Dusty Baker. They are anchored by perennial MVP candidate Joey Votto, fresh off a 10 year $225 million contract. Votto is surrounded by all-stars in the Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips and a promising young shortstop in Zack Cozart. Scott Rolen and Bruce have gotten off to slow starts but I look for them to turn it around. Especially playing in their ballpark, they will be able to score runs. Their biggest question mark is pitching. They went all in on Matt Latos, giving up two of their top prospects and a quality starter, hoping he can be what he was 2 years ago for San Diego. But the biggest challenge for Latos will be going from a pitcher friendly ballpark to a hitter friendly ballpark. Johnny Cueto and Latos can make a pretty good 1-2 in the rotation. The rest are decent, but I think Aroldis Chapman should have started the season in the rotation. This team has all the tools to make the playoffs and you have to think that if they aren't at least in contention, Dusty Baker might be looking for a new job next season.

Chicago Cubs – Their biggest move over the off-season was bringing in Theo Epstein to run the show, essentially changing the culture around the Cubs. They have cleaned house, hired a new manager in Dale Sveum, let Aramis Ramirez go, and traded away Marlon Byrd. It seems like they are going to try to move Alfonso Soriano or just wait for his monster contract to end before they do anything. Epstein's biggest move to trade for his guy, Anthony Rizzo, to be “the guy” in the future. Even though they aren't really trying to compete for anything this year, Bryan LaHair has been a surprising story. He has been playing a very good first base hitting .364 with 4 home runs. Jeff Samardzija has also been pretty good since going to the rotation. The knock on him in the past has been he walks way too many guys, but it looks like he has finally gotten it together putting up a 3.13 K/BB ratio.

Houston Astros – This is the last season the Astros are going to play in the National League. But this is another team that isn't expected to compete for a postseason spot, but they have a chance to get better in the future. Two years ago, they had the worst farm system in the league, but after trading players such as Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence, it looks like they have been rebuilding and they are gradually improving. There are several players at the lower level with a chance to develop. Some of their young players, Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez, have already made an impact at the highest level and it looks like they will be pretty good players. They should be looking to trade Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers to continue to stock up their farm system. This team looks like they could be better than the worst team and I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 4^th in this division.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Every year, the Pirates seem to be that one team that people choose to be the dark horse to get into the playoffs, but every year they disappoint us. This team has a good franchise player in Andrew McCutchen and a couple of good young players in Neil Walker and Jose Tabata. Walker and Tabata has gotten off to slow starts and the Pirates are going to need them to hit and stay healthy if they are even going to think about competing. The second round pick in the 2008 draft, Pedro Alvarez, has the tools to also be a franchise player and has shown flashes, but he just hasn't been able to put it together. The Pirates also have one of the better farm systems that features potential aces in Jameson Taillon and 2011 first overall pick in UCLA's Gerrit Cole. Their pitching right now are filled with stop-gap pitchers in AJ Burnett, Kevin Correia, and Erik Bedard – just waiting for their young pitchers to develop. Bedard is actually having a pretty good start, but it isn't shown in his 0-4 record. Like every year, this team has some hidden talent, but they are probably 2-3 years away from putting it together.

Notes: NL West

San Francisco Giants – They started off the season by getting swept by the Diamondbacks and now they have gone 9-5 and have won every series. The biggest difference this year is the offense. They have scored 3 runs or less only 3 times this year. Like I said in my preview, the offense has made a big improvement with Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey playing like all-stars. The biggest concern of the young season is Tim Lincecum. Not only has his velocity gone down, but it looks like he can not control his fastball. Lincecum has also said he is scrapping his slider which might cause concerns about his elbow. But Lincecum is a smart pitcher and he is known to reinvent himself and will be able to turn it around. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are pitching wonderfully after signing big extensions. Barry Zito has been a great surprise this year. Brian Wilson has been lost for the year, but I don't think this will affect the Giants as much as losing Andrew Bailey for the Red Sox. Santiago Casilla will get the first shot at save opportunities. But Bochy can plug in Casilla or Sergio Romo on any given night.

The most frustrating thing to watch is how they are handling Brandon Belt. As I said in my Preview, they were setting him up to fail. Belt got off to a slow start and now he rarely gets to play. There have been talks in the Giants front office that they think Belt is a bust. If that is the case why not trade him? Or send him down to the minors so that he can get some consistent playing time and if they still don't think he can play in the big leagues, he is at least improving his trade value. The Phillies are doing something similar with Dominic Brown, he is in the minors hitting .350 but he still can not play defense to save his life. Even if the Phillies don't want him, he is increasing his trade value for other teams to take a chance on. I believe Belt can be a very good player, he just needs the opportunity. If the Giants don't see it that way, at least get something for him and not just let him rot on the bench.

Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are a .500 team right now and I don't think this the best they can play. Justin Upton and Paul Goldschmidt is off to a slow start. Chris Young is off to a scorching hot start, but now he is on the DL. Stephen Drew has yet to take the field this season yet either. As the season progresses I see this line-up going back to being one of the best run scoring line-ups in the national league. The area this team can upgrade on is the starting pitching. Daniel Hudson has gotten off to a slow start, but it seems that he is hurt, so hopefully his DL stint and can help him get it together. Josh Collmenter is just not good. He had decent success last season mainly because of his funky delivery, but now that hitters are seeing more of him, he is getting rocked. Trevor Bauer is tearing up AA ball right now, 4-0 with a 0.40 ERA 28k in 22 innings. The biggest argument to Bauer is that he walks too many batters right now, but even though he walks batters he will make bats miss and he will give you better results than Collmenter or even Joe Saunders – I don't see him keeping up his 1.93 ERA.

Los Angeles Dodgers – This team is off to a fantastic start, but I'm not jumping on their bandwagon just yet. 13 of their first 16 games were against the Padres, Pirates, and Astros and the one series they played against a good team (Brewers) they lost the series. They do have the best player on the planet in Matt Kemp and arguably the best pitcher in the league in Clayton Kershaw. They have a line-up with Juan Rivera and Juan Uribe as everyday players and that doesn't bode well for any team. Dee Gordon is an intriguing player, if he gets on base he can cause havoc, but he needs to get on base first and he strikes out way too many times.  They have a rotation that features Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano behind Kershaw, with nothing else. I don't see this team keeping up the way they are playing and I want to see them play against the better teams before I say they are legit. They will come back down to earth and win 80 games at best.

Colorado Rockies – The Rockies have started off the season 9-8. Playing in Coors Field and having a line-up anchored by Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, I think they are a .500 team at BEST. Michael Cuddyer is having a good start, but Todd Helton are off to slow starts, which leads one to wonder how much does he have left in the tank. But with role players such as Chris Nelson and Marco Scutaro filling out the line-up, I don't see them winning more than 75 games. Their best pitcher right now is 49 year old Jamie Moyer with a 2.28 ERA. This team just does not have the pitching to compete. Drew Pomeranz has the highest ceiling out of all their pitchers and I see him as a legit 1 or 2 starter, but behind him I don't see anyone on this pitching staff who will be higher than a #5 starter on any other team.

San Diego Padres – The Padres are in no position to compete this year. Chase Headley is quietly having a very good start to the season and they still have one of the best defensive middle infield in Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson. And they have made some great moves for the future however. They sent their ace Matt Latos to the Cincinnati Red for two great young prospects in Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal, and Edison Volquez. They also sent a couple minor leaguers for Carlos Quentin. They have a promising young rotation that features Tim Stauffer and Cory Luebke. Also Anthony Bass and Joe Weiland are two very good young pitchers to keep an eye on. This team is not competing for anything this year, but they have some interesting young pieces for the future.  

10 Things: Playoff Preview (Part 2)

Here's part 2, enjoy.

5. The Final Push: Unlike the Eastern Conference which is pretty much set, the teams standing from the 6th to 10th seed in the Western Conference are separated by 2.5 games (Nuggets, Mavericks, Suns, Rockets, & Jazz) and in the final week winning these final games for these teams is crucial and will determine who gets into the playoffs or not. Every team listed still has a couple of tough games left on the schedule and some of them will even play each other before the season comes to a close so it should be very fun to watch as I would consider this an pre-playoff tournament before the actual playoffs begin. The two teams I have left out of the playoffs when it's all said and done are the Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz. Sorry guys.

4. Bull Tough: While everyone has praised the Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat for their great season and wonderful play neither of them possess a better record nor have played better than the most-overlooked team in the league this year, the Chicago Bulls. At 46-17 on the season so far, the Bulls have been the team to beat all year and they have done it in the most-improbable fashion. With the league's MVP missing 26 games this year constantly battling different injuries, the Bulls have managed to keep winning by being a complete team and growing together in the absence of their superstar. From guys like John Lucas III to Omer Asik, every man on this team knows their roles now and no one is afraid to step up. It was clearly evident in the game last week against the Heat even when Rose played but was not at his best. If the Bulls have been this good without Rose in the regular season how good will they be when Rose is in the lineup for the playoffs? All that remains to be seen, and as great as the Bulls have been without Rose most of the year, Rose being healthy and able to play at a high level will be crucial to the Bulls making it to the Finals this year. Make no mistake about it, the Bulls are legitimate title contenders and the only team in the way of the Heat in the East, but there is no way they will be able to beat the Heat or any team (maybe the Bobcats and Wizards) in a seven game series without the significant presence of the MVP. 

3. Battle LA: All season long one team's potential scared me more than any other and that team was the Los Angeles Clippers. After the Chris Paul trade right before the season began, the Clippers became one of the teams to watch all year and watch, I have, for a good portion of their season. At the beginning of the year, the potential of the team was evident starting with a win against the Heat in early January on national television. As the season progressed they have only gotten better, they've adjusted the roster well enough to compete with the best, and here are a couple of the main observances I've taken from the team through the course of the year that define who they are: 1. Chris Paul is the best point guard in the NBA and this is his team not 2. Blake Griffin who is a douche that needs to be laid out by Josh McRoberts in the playoffs to level down his ridiculous amount of overconfidence. That being said 3. Blake is an extraordinary talent but still so raw that if he ever does learn how to shoot free throws, post-up and hit a mid-range jumper consistently, he will post 30-15 a season easily. Athleticism will only get him so far 4. Vinny Del Negro is a terrible coach and will single-handedly cause this team to come up short in the playoffs 5. The Clippers' have all the pieces needed to win a championship now.¹ The Clips are winners of 13 of their last 15 and it seems as if the team is coming full circle at the perfect time. If the Clippers continue to play at this high level of basketball and can play into a better seeding (3rd seed potential) before the season concludes, it wouldn't surprise me if they advanced further than their big brother team and shared tenant, the Lakers.

The Los Angeles Lakers are another team going into the playoffs that no one wants to play in a seven game series right now. The midseason trade for Ramon Sessions has proven to be the exact jolt they needed and with Andrew Bynum's development on the court,² he and Gasol (if he actually shows up) in the post will be a problem for any team. We've seen how dominant and problematic both can be in the playoffs and with Bynum getting more touches in the post now, a concern for Kobe being fully healthy won't be as important. In this recent absence of Kobe, who is resting for the final grind of the year,³ the Lakers have been able to build stronger chemistry without him in the lineup. Meta World Peace looks like he knows how to play basketball again and the role players (Blake, Barnes, Murphy) finally know their roles. Once Kobe returns, it'll be interesting to see if they can keep up the momentum and readjust to Mamba's dominance of the ball. That being said, the Lakers will be ok and with a veteran team, they know how to win when it counts. As the season comes to a close both teams in Los Angeles will look to claim the third seed and avoid the tough match-up with the Grizzlies in the first round. All season long the Lakers/Clippers "rivalry" has been heated and a matchup in the playoffs would be a must-watch. They are both currently separated by half a game and it will surely be a battle in LA till April 26th and possibly down the line in the playoffs.

2. Last of a Dying Breed: I remember when I wrote the season previews at the beginning of the year, there were two teams that I wrote off as having their windows closed already and being too old to realistically compete for a championship. In a shortened 66-game season including the grind of back-to-back-to-backs, there was no way veteran teams would thrive, but the Boston Celtics and San Antonio Spurs have proven this theory wrong. From the get-go the Spurs have shown that their poor postseason performance last year was a fluke due mostly to a bad match-up and the injury of Manu Ginonili rather than them actually being washed up. This year's approach to the season led by the masterful Gregg Popovich has been brilliant. The broken hand to Manu early in the year could almost be considered a godsend to the team as it allowed guys like Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard to assert themselves into the rotation (now starters), Tony Parker has reasserted himself and has returned to his 2007-form which he needed to be (see "5. Spurs"), and Old Reliable is still reliable when he needs to be. Add a killer bench of Captain Jack, Manu, Boris Diaw's Boobs, Gary Neal,Tiago Splitter, and the Red Rocket, and leave it to Pops to squeeze the most out of all his players and you have in my opinion the second best if not the best contender in the West. As much as I dislike praising  Popovich, RC Buford, and the players for putting together a great regular season, giving credit where credit is due is necessary. When a team goes on cruise control  for an entire season and is still one of the best in the league that has to mean something right? As long as the Spurs avoid the Grizzlies in the playoffs they can beat anyone in the west and make a last run at the finals.

As for the other old team, the Boston Celtics, their season has been far from perfect. After a mediocre start to the year where they were sub-500 and fighting to even be in the playoff race, the Celtics have slowly turned their year around and capped off a wild regular season by winning the the Atlantic division last night, a seemingly improbable feat for them just a couple months ago. To know that this final run by the Celtics was almost a couple deals away from not happening, it is incredible to see how the team has responded. Since the trade deadline, the C's have gone out and played most of their games with a sense of urgency and as a fan you notice that these guys appreciate the chance for one more. They understand this is the last run for them. All that motivational stuff still does not put out a winning a product, the turnaround in the C's season has been in large part possible because of Doc Rivers. He has turned injuries (Jeff Green, JO, Wilcox) and one of the worst benches in the league into a positive for the team. He has found a solid 10-man rotation with guys willing to fill whatever role as long as the outcome is wins. Steinsma, Pietrus, and Sugar Ray lead the bench, the Brandon Bass swap has been a  huge success, and Avery Bradley is an absolute pest on defense.⁴ Paul Pierce is back and so is KG. Most importantly Rajon RondoooooOOOoooOOOooo is playing out of his mind. His emotions and his level of play will be the determinant in where the C's finish their season. I've stressed before that KG is that guy, but no, it is Rondo. Rondo needs to play the way he does on national television all the time if they want to beat the Heat and Bulls en route to the finals. As a big fan of the C's I look forward to seeing how these guys will play in the playoffs. I know one thing is for sure. They won't go down without putting a good fight.     

1. Dream Series: One of the realizations that happen every year once the playoffs begin is that the basketball gods never give the fans exactly what they want. Sure for the die-hard fan of their local team, when their team makes it to the finals they don't care about the match-up as long as their team makes it to the finals, but speaking for the casual fan who just wants to watch an epic series of the most-entertaining seven-game series of basketball, the dream series this year would feature four of the top ten basketball players on the planet, the top two MVP candidates this season, and two teams that may potentially face each other in the finals for the next couple of years. The two teams I am talking about of course are the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder. These two teams have been wonderful all year and they split their regular season series. Both games were entertaining with the game in Miami determined in the final seconds. The two teams are loaded with talent, play an exciting uptempo style, and are just really fun to watch. I won't continue to gloat over them because I do it quite often, so I'll explain why this potential series could not happen.

Starting with the Thunder. Their team is great, but their success will all depend on who they are matched up with and with the seeding currently the way it is, that is exactly where they would like to be which is 2nd in the west. That is because the three teams they cannot beat or will have the hardest time beating sit at 1,4, and 5 right now (Spurs, Clippers, and Grizzlies), and they can avoid two out of the three and only play one of them if they make it to the conference finals. The Thunder cannot beat the Clippers. They just can't and it bothers the hell out of me, and the Grizzlies as we saw in last year's playoffs give them a load of trouble in the post and this year they'll have Rudy Gay. So why not have the Grizzlies and Clippers play each other in the first round then one of them play the Spurs in the second round and everything will be solved. However, the seeding can change within this next week easily. The Thunder may eventually win themselves into the 1-seed or the Clippers can get the 3-seed (1/2 game behind the Lakers) and the Thunder can remain the 2-seed. Match-ups matter for these guys, but also three point shooting, interior scoring, and their final rotation to close out games does too. The Thunder are far from perfect and they could have used a trade for an outside scoring threat (a la Clippers and Nick Young) or an inside scoring threat to sit Perkins in crunch time instead of only signing D-Fish to improve (which isn't really an improvement). I still believe the Thunder are the favorite in the west because they're an experienced playoff team now and I believe KD and Westbrook will work much better this year together than last. Baron Jr. will be the gel and x-factor that completes them, and as long as Perkins and Iblaka protect the paint, the Thunder can be playing in June regardless of whoever they have to face in the playoffs. I'm just a bit worried.

The Heat's situation is really not as complicated as the Thunder's, but they're a team that can definitely make it more complicated than it really should be. There is only one team in the east they really have to worry about and that's the Bulls. If you want to throw in Celtics, sure, but just remember what the Heat did to them last year. The Heat are really their own worst enemy and no one should actually be able to beat these guys in a series. NO ONE. They have two of the five best players in the league, a top 10 big man (Bosh still sucks) and one of these guys is a special talent that is only given to us from the basketball gods every 10 years or so. Yet they still don't know how to finish games after playing over 150+ games together and that out-of-this-world talent is still afraid to play big in the clutch. Through the years, I've waited for that all-important "it" to come out from LeBron eventually, but he just doesn't have that in him. If the Heat face any adversity in the playoffs, I truly believe they can fall apart the same way they did against the Mavs last year. The only person that won't allow it is Dwyane Wade, but he's going to need the rest of the guys to show up as well.⁵ This will be a two series playoffs for the Heat this year, Bulls⁶ and if they can beat them, whoever it is in the finals. It is that simple, but the question remains, do they have the psyche to make it this easy or will they beat themselves along the way? 

      

Two years ago the popular pick was Lakers/Cavs, last year it was Lakers/Heat, and neither one of those played out as we saw the collapse of LeBron in Cleveland and the solidification of greatness from Dirk that changed the course of what should have been. These surprises happen every year in the playoffs and it is what makes this time of the year so great because you never know what to expect. But if everything goes according to plan I don't think anyone will complain about a finals match-up between the Thunder and Heat. The playoff grind will bring casualties to a couple favorites down the line and the Heat and Thunder are definitely not protected from the upset as they possess quite a few flaws. The month of May is where we will see if they actually have it in them and deserve to be in the finals. Until then, one can only dream of the probability.    

Footnotes:

¹ They actually have all the pieces necessary: 3-point shooting (Nick Young & Mo Williams), scrappy energy guys that will fight anyone and they have the best combo in the NBA (Eric Bledsoe & Reggie Evans), veteran leadership (K-Mart, Caron, and injured Chauncey), defensive shot-blocker in the paint (DeAndre Jordan), all-star (Blake), and superstar that has “it” (CP3). The only thing I see missing is a third best player but that could be filled by Mo or Caron.

² Yeah he’s developed into the second best center in the NBA and his numbers are up and he’s performing to the best of his abilities BUT he is very immature and stubborn. His attitude will only hurt him down the line. That three point shooting crap that he’s pulling and that high horse he’s riding needs to stop. It really surprises me that Kobe hasn’t done anything, but since he’s playing so well I guess it will be fine for now. I just hope Bynum understands that he still has a lot of room for improvement and that he hasn’t accomplished anything significant in his career yet that is worth puffing his chest. 

³ Don’t worry folks, Kobe is fine, he’s not a human. He’s actually a robot. He’s getting a final recharge on his battery, a tune up on his knee, and an installation of destroy everything hardware. When the playoffs start, Black Mamba will be ready to kill everything.

⁴ Almost incredible how Doc turned this team around and found the perfect rotation to have these guys playing well. A large part is credited to the professionalism of the Big 4 especially Ray Allen who has accepted his role off the bench, Avery Bradley’s development into the new Bruce Bowen (I honestly didn’t think Bradley would make it in the league but he has found his niche), and the surprising effectiveness of their makeshift center rotation of Grelandon Steinsholbass. Simply incredible how Sasha Pavolic can be a part of a rotation competing for an NBA title. This should never happen in 2012….then again what era would have a successful team featuring Sasha?

⁵ I’m speaking to Mike Miller and Shane Battier’s remains, Chris Bosh’s manliness (if it actually exists), and that center combination of Ronny Turiaf and Joel Anthony? I don’t worry about Chalmers cause he’s been clutch his whole life, and this is the year guys…LeBron will not choke…I hope.

⁶ I can't emphasize enough how important Derrick Rose's health is in determining the winner of the eastern conference. He’s going to have to be brilliant and it really doesn’t matter to me that Rip Hamilton is starting to play well now, and the rest of the team has gotten much better this year, Derrick Rose is still going to have to carry these guys. If he was 100% the Bulls would be my favorites, but I just think that Rose’s health issues will be the reason the Heat win the east again.

  

10 Things: Playoff Preview (Part 1)

Back folks. After my annual month-long vacation of college basketball I think it's time to be reacquainted with the NBA. With about five games left in the season let's see what we should anticipate as the playoffs near. 

10. The Power of the Unibrow: With the playoffs on its way, it also allows fans from cities like Charlotte and Washington to celebrate the ending of a tumultuous season and look forward to the most exciting part of their year, the draft lottery. In what could be the strongest draft in years, many teams (including the Warriors) have given up on the season in hopes of adding more ping pong balls in the sweepstakes for the next franchise player. The list of studs in the draft this year include Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Jeremy Lamb, Bradley Beal, and many more. Although everyone will be wanting the magical unibrow, only one team will be lucky enough to acquire his powers. The rest of the teams shouldn't worry however cause quality players will be available across the board. Besides the popular names going to losing teams, the Playoff teams will also benefit from this draft, being able to draft guys like Terrence Jones, Moe Harkless, and Dion Waiters in the mid-late 1st round. For loyal fans of losing NBA franchises, the draft lottery will be their postseason celebration. Help is on its way.

9. The Magic Show: The television show that has been the Orlando Magic this season would fall in a genre of drama/mystery/comedy/everything. As a non-Magic fan, I personally enjoy it a lot. The reason? The Magic kind of deserve it because they did this to themselves and I absolutely hate Dwight Howard cause he is a big softie, and has always been. They've employed one of the worst GM's in basketball for the last six years and by babying the second coming of LeBron, he's ruined the future of the franchise. They had it coming for them and as the playoffs near, it doesn't surprise me that it's beginning to all implode on them now. The Magic could very well be a serious threat in these playoffs,  but with the chemistry of the team in shambles, competing seems far from reality.  

If for some reason however, the Magic do get a motivated Howard, there is a chance they can make some noise. As we've learned in past seasons, the three ball can change the course of an entire series and the Magic possess that type of ammunition to do it.¹ This improbable run most-likely won't happen as all signs point to a first-round exit and the end of an era of Magic basketball which started out so promising. Dwight not only cost one of the better coaches in the league his job, but he also turned what could be a very dangerous team in the playoffs to a complete joke. When their season is officially over, there will be many changes in the front office (Otis Smith out, SVG out)² while Dwight potentially holds the franchise hostage for at least another half of a season. Sorry Magic fans.

8. Big City Big Dreams: As the playoff race currently stands, the New York Knicks are two games ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and barring a major collapse (which is possible with this team), they'll earn the right to play the Bulls or the Heat in the 1st round. The Knicks' season has been a roller coaster starting with their slow start followed by the rise of Linsanity, then falling into a slump with Melo and the firing of Mike D'Antoni and now the ride is rising back up with Woodsonanity. In a lockout-shortened season, this current Knicks' team has created enough story lines to make up for two or three seasons. Being a sports franchise in the Big Apple means added pressure from fans to succeed and even if they make the playoffs falling short in the first round will be considered a disappointment regradless of all the problems they've overcome to get in. Their potential first round match-up with the Bulls should be very entertaining as we got a little preview last Sunday of what to expect in the series and although they've been winless against the Heat, they should make it an interesting series. While the Knicks still have a lot of issues to address as they enter the playoffs like Amare Soudemire's health, who will run the offense for them, and whether or not Mike Woodson can motivate these guys well enough to compete, the Knicks will certainly be a tough out. They match up well with the Bulls and Heat, and when they have a superstar in Carmelo, an all-star in Amare, deep threats in Landry, JR, and Novakane, a wildcard big-stage performer in B Diddy,³ and a defensive stalwart in Iman Shumpert to lock down wings, the Knicks will have a chance to pull off an upset. It's unlikely to happen, but with a team from the big city with big dreams and potential, anything is possible.          

7. Sleep Is the Cousin of Death: Every season there is a team that surprises and overachieves come playoff time. Last season's sleeper was the Memphis Grizzlies, and this season they will be that sleeper team making noise again. While the West is wide open and the winner of the conference will be dependent on luck and match-ups, the Grizzlies will be the team no one wants to play. Besides their one weakness, outside shooting, the Grizzlies are scary and a match-up nightmare for any team. With Zach Randolph returning not too long ago from an injury and Rudy Gay healthy for this year's run, the Grizzlies are legitimate contenders in the West regardless of their playoff seeding (currently 5th). The one issue they will have is building chemistry with a complete roster for once, and figuring out the roles of each player. Will Zach Randolph be the focus like last year? Or will Rudy Gay now be the go-to-guy down the stretch? Will Marc Gasol have a smaller role now that Z-Bo is back? Can Mike Conley and Tony Allen be a disruptive backcourt for other teams and will OJ Mayo finally have a breakout playoff run that at least I expect of him? Regardless of these questions, the Grizzlies' issues are something all teams would love to have. Given that they haven't been able to be consistent all year, the playoffs would be a perfect time for everything to finally come together for these guys now that they're healthy, and no team wants to sleep on them if and when that happens.  

6. Kiss the Ring: A champion is a champion until proven otherwise. This will hold true for the Mavericks as they come into these playoffs ready to defend their crown. While they are looking at a tough matchup with the Lakers in the first round, who swept them in the season series, the Mavs have beat the Lakers in the playoffs before. They won't fear them, and they certainly can beat them again this season. The Mavs haven't had a smooth season whatsoever with players coming into the year out of shape (Dirk), injuries (Delonte, Brendan Haywood), and failed roster adjustments (Lamar Odom). Yet the Mavericks are getting healthy now, Dirk is back to all-star form, and the rest of the roster is adjusting nicely to their roles.⁴ We've seen Dirk carry his team through the playoffs before and with timely three point shooting from Vinsanity? Jet, J-Kidd, and whoever else wants to be a part of the shooting party, it wouldn't surprise me if the Mavs are back in the Finals this year. They know how to win when it matters and until a team eliminates them, you can never discredit the heart of a champion.

Footnotes:

¹ According to a couple experts, this Magic team very-much looks like the team from 2009 that shot their way to the finals, which remember upset the LeBron-led Cavs that were supposed to be beat everyone that year. They have J-Rich, Ryan Anderson, JJ Redick, and Hedo. The only difference this season is the lack of chemistry between the players with Dwight and SVG. They do however have a favorable match-up against the Pacers in the first round and in round 2 against the Heat, no one on the Heat will be able to defend Dwight which means 20-20 possibilities every game. Mix that with Jameer Nelson finally waking up this season and J-Rich and Ryan Anderson catching heat from three and they can definitely pull off an upset. It’s possible.

² Stan Van Gundy will be fine however. He’ll get a job where he’s respected but unfortunately lose it again because of another diva center…probably. He’s an unlucky dude.

³ Who am I kidding? Baron’s washed up and it hurts so much to see it. RIP.

⁴ Hello Brandan Wright, welcome to the NBA.

 

Playoff or Bust

This year's San Francisco Giants are playoff or bust.

This team on paper has all the tools to make the playoffs in a significantly weaker National League. They can make the playoffs by winning the National League West – but this might be a tough task because the Arizona Diamondbacks are very good after acquiring Trevor Cahill from the Oakland A's and are only getting better with the likes of Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs waiting in the wings.

Or the Giants can make the playoffs by using the new play-in game rule instated this year. They would play the other wild card team in a one game playoff to get into the postseason. And as I said before, this is a much weaker National League where the Giants will surely finish as the 4^th or 5^th best team. And considering that either Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain or Madison Bumgarner would pitch that game, you have to figure the Giants will win that game no matter who they play, whether it's the Braves, Brewers, or Nationals.

The Giants should make it to the postseason because they have wonderful pitching. And their few additions this offseason should help their offense significantly. Their hitting last year was so bad, I mean there isn't anywhere to go but up, right?

They have Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner – older, more polished – creating arguably the best 1-2-3 top of a rotation, along with Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito - Is this the year he finally gets it together? -  rounding out the rotation. They bring back the same bullpen that was one of the best in the league last year, minus Ramon Ramirez (sent to Mets with Andres Torres for Angel Pagan). And although Brian Wilson may be on the decline, he is still a dynamic closer.

The Giant's final 25-man roster definitely shows that Bruce Bochy is trying to increase the offense to support his great pitching. They chose to keep Hector Sanchez as back up catcher – who can hit but the jury is still out on his catching ability – over the hitting challenged Eli Whiteside and chose to ship Chris Stewart out of town.

The Giants also kept Brandon Belt and Brett Pill on the major league roster and will start Belt at first base. I am hoping that Belt wins this job outright and gets the chance to keep the job. But I feel the Giants (Bochy in particular) has set up Belt to fail. Belt can flat out hit, but he needs time and support behind him so that he can progress. If Belt starts to slump, he has Pill breathing down his neck and an Aubrey Huff, who does not want to/can not play the outfield, waiting to jump on that 1^st base job.

Huff starts the season in left field. Hopefully his mindset has finally accepted the move to the outfield – he had a bad attitude last year and look at the disaster that was. New comer Melky Cabrera now starts in right field and that bumps Nate Schierholtz to the bench. This new Huff-Pagan-Cabrera is devoted to hitting and is an upgrade over last year's Burrell-Torres-Huff and the World Series' outfield of Burrell-Torres-Ross.

The infield is anchored by the return of Buster Posey at catcher, with Belt at first, All-Star third baseman Pablo Sandoval, and hometown fielding wiz-kid Brandon Crawford at shortstop. The big question mark in the infield is at second base. Right now, a platoon of Ryan 'TheRiot' Theriot and Emmanuel Burriss are holding down the fort for Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez is now a slightly above average hitter, but he just seems to be perpetually hurt.

The newest addition is the increase in speed at the top of the line-up. It will be interesting as we've almost forgot what a Giants base runner steals a base. Pagan and Cabrera have the ability to steal 50+ bases between the two of them. Burriss and Theriot also provide plus plus speed whether it's off the bench or filling in for Freddy Sanchez.

So, yes, the Giants should make the playoffs one way or another. And once in the playoffs, the Giants become one of the most dangerous teams around. The name of game in the playoffs is all about shut-down pitching. We all remember what our pitching did in the 2010 postseason – Lincecum, Bumgarner, and Cain with 2.43, 2.18, and 0.00 ERAs respectively.

If they get to the playoffs, the Giants have a good shot at winning the World Series. They just need to get there first.

Fresh Blood

What's up readers? I've been recruited here to share with you all, my knowledge of the wonderful game of baseball. I actually think Anson told me to contribute to this blog because he was sick and tired of listening to me rant on and on about the San Francisco Giants and the baseball universe. Well, let me introduce myself. My name is Ryrixx Darawali (pretty boy on the right), 21 years old and am currently attending UC Davis studying economics. My obsession with baseball started at the age of 6, sitting on the couch with the game on TV, I remembered running back and forth asking my father about this game that we were watching. Who is that guy? Why is he doing that? What is that called? I was hooked. Then I went to my first game in 1997 - San Francisco Giants vs Montreal Expos at good ole Candlestick Park. And ever since that I lived and breathed baseball. I consider myself a student of the game, always willing to listen and learn from others, but I will also not hesitate to give you my opinion. I guess this is where the blog comes in. People who know me personally, know that I can/will talk about baseball for hours at a time and hopefully this blog can provide me a bigger forum for people to hear my ideas.