Merry Christmas yall! Last of the season predictions. I don't like the parentheses so I'm copying the great literature that i read with footnotes. Who am I kidding, I was really inspired by the great Bill Simmons to do it. If you see a number above anything, just scroll all the way down, the footnote will be there. Enjoy:
8. Golden State Warriors
Josh will give an entire team breakdown so I'll be quick with the Warriors.
Strating 5: Stephen Curry (PG), Monta Ellis (SG), Dorrell Wright (SF), David Lee (PF), Andris Biedrins (C)
Breakout Player: Stephen Curry – It’s no secret how valuable Steph is to our team and the rest of the league after all the Chris Paul trade discussions. Coming into his third season, expectations are very high.
Player to Watch: David Lee – Needs to be the double-double machine he was in New York.
Overview: I really like Mark Jackson as the coach and like everyone else I cannot wait to hear those in-game huddles1. I’ve mentioned Steph and D-Lee’s prospects for the season, and I still think Monta and Biedrins need to go. We really can’t afford to have a mediocre season because we only have a top-7 protected draft pick for next season and I don't believe we're a bottom-7 team so I expect quality basketball from the W’s. The current roster we have is good enough to be in the playoffs, our chemistry is very good, and the ownership is now dedicated to winning. Isn’t it about time the Warriors got some of this bay area sports magic anyways?
Season Prediction (36-30) = Kwame Brown weighing in at 300lbs by the end of the year and playing only 25 games due to a “turf toe” injury with a grand total of 50 minutes, 30 fouls, 4 points, 6 rebounds, 0 assists, and 1 block. And we signed him for $7 million?!?!? Give me Reggie Evans. He’ll do all that for a sack of nuts.
7. Portland Trailblazers
Starting 5: Raymond Felton (PG), Wesley Matthews (SG), Nicholas Batum (SF) *Correction* Gerald Wallace (I totally forgot about him), LaMarcus Aldridge (PF), Greg Oden (C)
Breakout Player: Nicholas Batum – With the saddening news of Brandon Roy’s early retirement, the Blazers need to find a new young superstar to take over the reins of the team and Batum is the guy with the most upside and potential to become that player. He’s always been an excellent defender and in the past few seasons he’s been able to become a much-better shooter. I fully expect a much bigger role for him this season and I expect him to handle the added pressure without any problems. He’s been in the league for four seasons and it’s time he starts reaching the peak of his potential. If the Blazers want to move quickly past the Brandon Roy era, French Pippen will need to become more than just an athletic defender this season.
Player to Watch: Greg Oden – I’ve never really been a big fan of Oden and it’s not because he’s a jerk or anything. He’s actually a pretty funny guy with a good personality, but being the biggest Kevin Durant fan just made me dislike him because I knew Durant would be a better player than Oden, and I was a little bitter that Oden was picked 1st over Durant. It wasn’t the wrong decision by the Blazers though. I’ve always believed if there is a “franchise center” in the draft, you have to take him first. I always thought Oden would become a really good center, but I didn’t expect the Blazer-injury curse to strike his career too. After so many seasons of disappointment and injury, at some point you have to feel sorry for the guy. That is why I believe Oden will finally have his first healthy season2 and actually make an impact on the team. When healthy, Oden has proved he can be a good center in the league. He’s an excellent rebounder and shot blocker with a decent post game. If Oden can actually stay healthy this season and be half the player we expected him to be, just his impact on defense alone will make the Blazers a much-better team. Overview: The Blazers are the same team every season. Middle of the pack playoff team, plays a tough first round series, but gets eliminated. This season’s team is built for that same fate. Losing one of the most promising shooting guards in the league at the prime of his career is a huge blow for a franchise that was on its way to being a yearly contender in the West. Moving on from this huge setback won’t happen immediately. However, the front office has managed to put together a team that is still very good. Ray Felton is a slight upgrade over an aging Andre Miller, but that Andre Miller guy…he is mysteriously amazing, while Felton is straight hit or miss depending on the type of basketball his team plays. The Blazers are slooooooow, and I don’t know if Felton will be as effective as he was last season when he played on two fastbreak teams. Wesley Matthews was an excellent pick-up last season and I don’t think anyone could have predicted him to be a quality replacement for Roy, but he’s done a pretty good job so far, and should continue to do so this year. I’ve mentioned Batum and Oden and how they play will impact the team. LaMarcus Aldridge is the star of this team now and it’s amazing how this happened when just a few years ago Oden was drafted, and it was expected that he would be the third-option for their future. Roy is retired and Oden has never played a full season, but Aldridge has become one of the most versatile power forwards in the game. He will be greatly depended on this season to carry the team once again. Lastly, what happened to their bench? I don’t know anyone on it anymore. Overall, they’re a good team, good enough to repeat the last few seasons.
Season Prediction (37-29) = My curse on Oden results in a bone fracture in his knee caused by riding the stationary bike too hard. He misses the entire season yet again, becomes discouraged, retires from basketball, and becomes the tallest porn star in the industry3. Oh and the Blazers will get destroyed by the guy they should have drafted instead of Oden in the 1st round of the playoffs. Cry your hearts out Blazer fans.
6. Los Angeles Clippers
Starting 5: Chris Paul (PG), Chauncey Billups (SG), Caron Butler (SF), Blake Griffin (PF), DeAndre Jordan (C)
Breakout Player: DeAndre Jordan – Tyson Chandler in 2008 and a ton of this !!!
Player to Watch: Chauncey Billups – He will have to provide the leadership and set an example of how to win on a team with huge expectations and a ton of hype. Chauncey is the only guy on the roster who matters that has played for something meaningful in his NBA career. Responsibility on him will be plenty as he has to keep this team together and build a strong chemistry in the backcourt with Chris Paul. He’ll also be playing out of position. Scoring shouldn’t be a problem, but how will he fare as an undersized shooting guard on defense? Will he be able to defend Kobe or Dwyane Wade or will that job be given to an undersized Chris Paul? Chauncey will have plenty of different roles and plenty of different challenges thrown at him this season, and I’m intrigued to see if he’s up for the task and if his winning ways will rub off on his teammates.
Overview: The Clippers have had one hell of an offseason, and for Donald Sterling, who has been the worst owner in the NBA for 30 years; he deserves an A or maybe David Stern does. The only reason he doesn’t get an A+ is because he cracked under the pressure of Stern to give up Eric Gordon instead of Eric Bledsoe, which makes a HUGE difference. Eric Gordon is on his way to claiming the title of third-best shooting guard in the league, and if the Clippers could have kept him, they would have been the favorites in the West. Nonetheless, the team is headed in the right direction and the rest of the moves Sterling made this offseason were excellent. Let’s begin with the big trade of CP3. Whoo! I really cannot think of a better place for him to go. He is the perfect point guard. His playmaking abilities are flawless and now he has Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to run with him on a fastbreak. That’s not even fair. Billups and Butler will be the veteran leadership needed. They will also have to be the perimeter offense. Blake the cornflake Griffin…I don’t have any more words to describe him and his potential especially now that CP3 is his point guard. What has not been said about this new pairing? 25 and 15 is a strong possibility for Blake this year. DeAndre Jordan can be a 15-10 guy simply because Paul is the point guard. Their bench is the one aspect of their team that I’m not sold on. Yes, they have Mo Williams, but who after that? Ryan Gomes? Brian Cook? They will need to get more depth before the trade deadline. The hype for this team is well-deserved and expectations will be met and possibly exceeded. The only reason I rank them, 6th is because the teams ahead of them are proven and have been together for a while. I’m not ready to give them top-seeding in the West, not until they play real games together and not until Caron Butler or Chauncey Billups convince me that they can be a legitimate third guy on a championship-contending team. If these things work out, this team will be the real deal and they can definitely be the best team in the West. Season Prediction: (40-26) = One more season away from being real contenders. Donald Sterling will finally be a good owner and get a better bench and possibly a younger shooting guard to replace Chauncey Billups. They will beat their in-town rivals and overtake them as the team to watch in Los Angeles. They’re season will end to the 2nd ranked team in the West in a matchup of two of the brightest, up-and-coming teams in the league.
5. San Antonio Spurs
Starting 5: Tony Parker (PG), Manu Ginobili (SG), Richard jefferson (SF), Tim Duncan (PF), DaJuan Blair (C)
Breakout Player: James Anderson – The Spurs need someone on this team to give them new life. Anderson’s ability to score can make him that guy. He was supposed to have a decent role with the Spurs last year, but injuries delayed his progression and the Spurs were willing to wait for him to develop more in preparation for this season.
Player to Watch: Tony Parker – Tim Duncan is the franchise player, Manu Ginobili is the best all-around player, but Tony Parker is the difference-maker. The way Parker plays effects the team as much as Duncan plays and maybe even more. When the Spurs were winning championships every other season in the mid-2000s, Duncan was dominant, but Parker was one of the most difficult guards to defend in the league4 even winning a Finals MVP in 2007. That Parker has been missing for the past few years and maybe it’s because he’s aging or getting caught up in off-court scandals, but the Spurs need the old Parker back if they even want a chance at competing with these new western heavyweights.
Overview: Alright I’ll be honest, I don’t really know much about anything the Spurs have done this offseason. I assume their team is pretty much the same as last season and that’s fine if they’re playing to get into the western conference semis. They did have the best regular season record in the West last year, but the Grizzlies showed how old the Spurs really were. A shortened season may help them in the playoffs, but it won’t bring back Tim Duncan’s young legs and unless they can pull off a monumental trade which is pretty much impossible5 they’ll be a good regular season team, but fall short come playoff time. Tony Parker as I mentioned will either have to have an incredible season reminiscent of 2007 or be traded by the deadline for someone else that can provide the team a spark. Manu Giniboli has miraculously grown hair in his bald spot6 and that will keep him playing at an all-star level this season. Kawhi Leonard I assume will be the starting small forward and I think he may have a chance to be something special on this team, and that wouldn’t be the case if he was on another team.7 DeJuan Blair is a beast, but only on certain nights and that won’t cut it. He will need to be DeJuan “Bear” for an entire season to take some pressure off Duncan. Tim Duncan is no longer the Tim Duncan I grew to hate my entire life, and it actually saddens me. As much as I dislike Duncan’s robotic game, he is arguably the best power forward to ever play the game, and to see him unable to perform at his highest level because his body won’t allow him to is a bummer. Hopefully the lockout gave him plenty of rest and he’ll be ready to show the rest of the league he’s still got it.
Season Prediction (41-25) = A tough first round loss to the team ranked right above them. Gregg Popovich possibly retiring…and Tim Duncan being a year away from retirement. Tony Parker will be traded for Goran Dragic and Manu Giniobili will have a full head of luscious locks by the start of training camp.
4. Memphis Grizzlies
Starting 5: Mike Conley (PG), Tony Allen (SG), Rudy Gay (SF), Zach Randolph (PF), Marc Gasol (C)
Breakout Player: OJ Mayo – It’s time for OJ to finally be the player he was expected to be. Given all his talent, there should be no reason that Tony Allen8 starts over him. He gave a pretty poor effort last season until the Playoffs arrived. Then he showed a little bit of the type of player he could be. I consider this season a make-or-break for him. He can either establish himself as the starting shooting guard of this team for the future or become a Jason Terry-type backup for the rest of his career.
Player to Watch: Rudy Gay – The centerpiece to one of the best frontcourts in the league, Gay comes into this season looking to prove he can fit-in with the team after missing a pivotal growth period during their playoff run with a season-ending shoulder injury. It shouldn’t be difficult for him and with the maturation of Z-Bo and the growth of Marc Gasol’s game it should be much easier for Gay to get acclimated with the team again and flourish.9 Overview: After watching them hand it to the Spurs and give the Tunder a run for their money in the playoffs, I realized these guys are no joke. They play hard, they play great basketball, they have the right pieces to win now, and those pieces will have them contending for a while. The key to their success is the two BIG guys that work the post. Marc Gasol gets better every year and it’s kind of ironic how a couple of seasons ago everyone called the Pau Gasol trade to the Lakers a travesty, but the Grizzlies may actually now have the better Gasol brother. Zach Randolph became the team’s star when Gay went out for the season and the maturation of his game has made him one of the elite power forwards in the game. He just has to stay consistent and stay away from that Memphis BBQ. Mike Conley is starting to show why he deserved to be drafted 4th in 2007, and Tony Allen (KD kryptonite) is the type of player every team should want and have. He’s completely selfless, scrappy as hell, and plays to his capabilities, never doing too much. They also have a very good bench even though Darrell Arthur is out for the year. It will be led by OJ Mayo, Sam Young, and Dante Cunningham. The key to continued success will fall all on the shoulders of the guy who wasn’t there for their playoff success, Rudy Gay. He can be the alpha dog on the team and if he does, the Grizzlies will be able to beat any team in this league.
Season Prediction (45-21) = Rudy Gay reaching superstar level and leading his team to an upset dethroning the NBA champs in the semis and playing in a thrilling Conference Finals against the team they took to the distance in the playoffs last season, falling short yet again. They’ll be one of the new teams contending for a title the next few years as long as Z-Bo doesn’t eat himself out of the league.
3. Los Angeles Lakers
Starting 5: Derek Fisher (PG), Kobe Bryant (SG), Devin Ebanks (SF), Pau Gasol (PF), Andrew Bynum (C)
Breakout Player: Andrew Bynum – Stay healthy and be more mature and it will all come together.
Player to Watch: Ron Artest – I refuse to call him “Metta World Peace” even though it is his legal name now. It’s for a good cause, I guess, but it’s silly. Now on Ron’s game this season, Mike Brown will play him off the bench. I wonder how this experiment will work out, but I think it’s a pretty good idea. Nothing has worked for Ron since he joined the Lakers so trying something new wouldn't be a bad idea. I believe he came off the bench when he was a Rocket and it worked out fine. Maybe he can take over for the loss of Lamar Odom and feed off being a sixth man.
Overview: There is way too much uncertainty and drama surrounding them coming into the season. They’re a team heading in a complete downfall with not much stopping it. The NBA owners and David Stern screwed them from building a new dynasty10 capable of winning five or more championships starting this season, and now they’re stuck with the same roster and a ton of issues. Mike Brown was hired to spite Kobe and say fuck the triangle and fuck Phil Jackson by the Buss family, trust me. Losing Lamar Odom will really hurt them. Pau Gasol is a pussy. He’s sensitive and I’m not sure how he’ll play knowing he isn’t wanted in LA. Andrew Bynum could be the best center in the NBA, but will he ever be healthy and mature enough to reach that status? Derek Fisher is reeeeeeeeeaaaaaaly old and sloooooooow. He is only a spot-up shooter at this point in his career. Ron Artest sucks and I’m still wondering where that amazing defender and bully in the post went. Devin Ebanks is their new starting small forward or Jason Kapono, ok. Lastly, Kobe Bryant is no longer a youngster. Those high-flying, super-human highlight plays, and game-winning shots can only last so long. He’s 33. There comes a point where he won’t be able to carry the team anymore and it may have already come. He is also dealing with a divorce from his beautiful wife. So then what makes me still rank the Lakers 3rd? The possibility that all of these issues are corrected and these guys disregard the drama and just play basketball. I know it’s a stretch, but think about it. If Pau Gasol plays basketball like a man and Andrew Bynum stays healthy, they have the best 4-5 combo in the league. Devin Ebanks may actually be good, you never know, and Ron Ron may work better off the bench. There is no saving Fish, but maybe they can find someone younger eventually to replace him, there’s always Steve Blake...or Hibachi!! Of course Kobe will be the guy that determines everything for the team. The best players in their sport play through all adversity and play their best in those times, and Kobe will have to do that if the team wants to remain one of the best in the West.
That’s what it takes for the Lakers to win. It’s a lot, but if it comes together they can play for a championship. As long as Kobe Bryant is the star of their team, you can never count them out.
Season Prediction (46-20) =1st round playoff exit to the Clippers, but a less-than equal trade of Andrew Bynum and some scrubs to Orlando for Dwight Howard will have the Lakers back next season.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Starting 5: Russell Westbrook (PG), Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant (SF), Serge Ibaka (PF), Kendrick Perkins (C)
Breakout Player: James Harden – So much offensive potential, so little defensive potential, but who cares. The Thunder are pretty good on help defense and on a team in need of a playmaker, Harden’s defensive deficiencies can be forgiven. He makes the game look easy, like he’s going to the rec to play pick-up at the highest level. He actually won’t be starting this season11 but I can assure you he’ll be playing 30+ minutes a game this year. More minutes mean more scoring and of course it means… more BEARD!!!
Player to Watch: Russell Westbrook – I hope everyone has forgiven Westbrook for last season’s ridiculously selfish playoff performance. I have forgiven and forgotten and am looking forward to another year of extreme growth in his game where he takes it from all-star level to top-10 player in the league, superstar level. There are only two other point guards in the league like him. One won an MVP last season, and the other is in DC on his way to a breakout season. What separates Westbrook from the other two is that he was never a point guard until he got to the NBA. He’s still learning to play the position and he’s already one of the best. He definitely needs to learn how to be a better distributor, but his jumper is improving, and he’s already the best rebounding point guard in the league. I see him filling the rest of the holes in his game this season and his growth will be the reason my Thunder are ready for big-time success. If he can accept being Durant’s Robin, everything will be fine. He will still be able to get his shine. Overview: The sky is the limit for this team and I expect nothing less than great from these guys this year. There’s still plenty of room for these guys to grow, but they’re ready to win a championship now. All the pieces are there and their biggest weakness is a tendency to have scoring droughts due to lack of movement. Last time I checked they still have the two-time scoring champ, Kevin Durant, so that issue will be fixed immediately. KD will be better all-around this season and becoming more than just a scorer will be the reason he wins the MVP. Russ will compliment Durant and figure out that winning as a team player gets him more recognition and respect from everybody. The bearded-wonder will win the sixth man of the year too. He will be counted on many occasions to hit big shots in the clutch and create for his teammates, and he will do just that. They don’t lack defense either as it will be anchored in the post by Kendrick Perkins12 and on the perimeter by Thabo Sefalosha. Serge Ibaka will contribute on both ends of the floor, blocking shots and hopefully demonstrating that new post-game he learned from the Gasols. The bench could still add some more front court depth, but everything else on this team is set for a season lasting till late June. They have a great coaching staff, a good mix of youth and veteran leadership, and a core that has played together for a couple seasons. It is finals or bust for the Thunder this year.
Season Prediction: (50-16) = Anson failing his spring quarter of college because he’ll be glued to a television every night from April-June watching the Thunder and crying when his team loses to the Heat in 5 in the Finals... But yup, they’ve finally arrived to the point13 where I’m confident in them to get to the Finals. They’re just not ready to win one yet. I really wouldn’t mind if they did though.
1. Dallas Mavericks
Starting 5: Jason Kidd (PG), Dominique Jones (SG), Chris Brown? Tyrann Mathieu? (SF) whoops…Shawn Marion14, Dirk Nowitzki (PF), Brendan Haywood (C)
Breakout Player: Dominique Jones – His starting job will actually be on a really short leash. If he is to struggle early on, Vince Carter will most likely take his starting spot. Given the opportunity however, he can really help this team even though he will be given a limited role.15 He was a standout scorer at South Florida, and maybe he’ll be able to have some big games for the Mavericks this season.
Player(s) to Watch: Vince Carter & Lamar Odom – The two biggest names in their offseason moves, they’ll also figure to have major roles on this team. Carter who has slacked off for the past few seasons has a chance to earn back some of the respect he lost from many fans. Given less expectations maybe he’ll be able to thrive coming off the bench. Odom is definitely a strong candidate to win sixth man of the year. He’ll definitely be motivated to play harder after not being wanted by the Lakers and he’ll have something to prove.
Overview: If you expect the Mavericks to be worse than they were last season after losing Caron Butler, Tyson Chandler, and JJ Barea this offseason, you’re wrong. The Mavericks are actually a better team this season and they’ve done it by not overpaying for guys, but rather with addition by subtraction and bargain moves.16 Tyson Chandler’s replacement is Brendan Haywood who won’t have the same effect as Chandler, but will be able to do more than enough to help the team for a cheaper price. Vince Carter, Dominique Jones, and Rodrigue Beaubois replace Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson, and JJ Barea. All three will be key contributors asked to take on the same roles of the guys they replaced.17 The biggest move for the team was acquiring Lamar Odom for basically nothing.18 His versatility will allow the Mavs to play any style of basketball.19 He’ll continue to be an excellent 6th man and allow Dirk to get plenty of rest during the regular season. The core guys of last season J-Kidd, Jet, and Dirk will still be productive this year. Jason Kidd will probably have a large drop off, but then again I’ve been expecting that for the last few seasons, and he’s proven me wrong. Jason Terry will still be feisty and knock down threes, and Dirk will continue to be the most unorthodox killer that he is. The Mavs will be a tough champion to knock off this year and they won’t go down easily. Till proven otherwise, they will remain 1st in the West.
Season Prediction (52-14) = 2nd round loss to the Grizzlies ending their championship reign. Jason Kidd retires and with plenty of cap space in the summer of 2012, Mark Cuban will try to lure Deron Williams back home to replace Kidd and if he has enough cap he’ll try to sign Dwight Howard too if he isn’t traded by this year’s deadline.
Hope you guys were all able to get your Concords or whatever gift you wanted. Christmas is already over here, but I hope you guys are excited for Christmas back in the states. It’s finally here, opening day and five NBA games, enjoy the games. Merry Christmas everybody and thanks for reading!
Footnotes:
1 “Monta, you know the drill, hand down man down!”
2 I think I just cursed him, sorry Gregory.
3 Search his leaked nude photos, I won’t think differently of you. You’ll be quite impressed.
4 Led the league in points in the paint as a point guard, super quick with an unstoppable floater, and his mid-range game was up there with Richard Hamilton.
5 Tony Parker is the only real valuable trade asset they have and he’s not even considered to be that valuable.
6 Just kidding. This was definitely an unnecessary scroll down to check the footnote, sorry.
7 He’s an old-school Popovich forward that can have his potential squeezed out the most while he is young unlike a Bruce Bowen. I think the Spurs will get the most out of Leonard. *Correction, RJ was not amnestied and is the starting small forward, but Leonard should still be good.
8 I like Allen a lot, but Mayo is too talented to not be starting over him.
9 I really hope the Warriors trade for Gay, and OJ Mayo. If OJ Mayo was worth Josh McRoberts and a 2nd rounder last season, can we offer Louis Amundson, Al Thornton & a 2nd rounder then match Monta straight up for Gay? I hope so.
10 If CP3 became a Laker without them having to give up Andrew Bynum, there’s no doubt Dwight Howard would be donning purple and yellow on opening day.
11 I was upset in an earlier post about him coming off the bench for another season, but it will be fine because he won’t be sitting on the bench when the games are on the line anyways.
12 He lost 50lbs this offseason and he looks great. Healthy, lean, and yolked.
13 For the past two seasons, I have not been convinced that the Thunder were ready for where they ended their seasons. Two years ago, I thought they were a year away from the playoffs. They ended up losing to the Lakers in 6, but it put them on the map. Last season, I thought they were ready to win one series, but they ended up losing to the Mavs in the Western Conference Finals. They always exceed expectations, and I hope they do it again this season.
14 Who would’ve thought Sisqo’s inspiration on Chris Brown would then lead to a bunch of black athletes thinking blonde hair was a good look.
15 They’ll probably expect the same production DeShawn Stevenson gave them from Jones. Jason Terry and Vince Carter will receive the bulk of the minutes at shooting guard.
16 It’s crazy how Mark Cuban has become such an excellent spender these past few seasons after years of overpaying for guys like Eric Dampier and Nick Van Exel.
17 Carter = Butler, Jones = Stevenson, & Beaubois = Barea
18 That first-round pick will be a late 1st rounder and by my rankings the 29th pick anyways. Yeah it’s a strong draft, but it’s still a guaranteed contract for a player who is not guaranteed to produce.
19 Small Ball: (Marion/Odom/Nowitzki), Big: (Odom/Nowitzki/Haywood), Fast: (Carter/Marion/Odom)
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