Thursday, April 26, 2012

Notes: NL Central



St. Louis Cardinals – The defending champs are the best team in the National League. They lost the face of their franchise, arguably the best hitter in his era, Albert Pujols. But they bring back a line-up with Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and hometown hero David Freese, 2-5. Rafael Furcal is looking rejuvenated at the top of that line-up and what ever they can get out of Jon Jay, Yadier Molina, and their second baseman will just be a plus. Berkman has been hurt the last week and Matt Carpenter has filled in nicely for him, but if Berkman needs to sit out an extended period of time, Carpenter is not going to cut it and look for the Cardinals to bring up Matt Adams to play first base. Their pitching has been very good too. Except for Adam Wainwright, all of their starters have an ERA under 3.00. Their starters have had success so far this season without their ace, Chris Carpenter, throwing a single pitch this year. Wainwright has not been the same this year, but he is coming off an injury so it will take him some time. The greatest challenge for new manager Mike Matheny is which one of his starters will he take out of the rotation once Carpenter comes back. It was suppose to be rookie Lance Lynn, but with his 4-0 and 1.33 ERA in his 4 starts, it's going to be hard to put him back in the bullpen. But overall, in a weaker senior circuit the Cardinals are the best team and I see them as the favorites to make it back to the World Series.

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers lost their protection behind Ryan Braun in Prince Fielder. They attempted to replace Fielder with Aramis Ramirez and are hoping to get good production from Matt Gamel. Last season with Fielder, it looked like they were maybe 1 good starting pitcher - to team up with Zach Greinke - away from a deep run into the playoffs. But this season, it just seems like they have taken a step backwards. Corey Hart is having a good start to the season, but every year he gets hurt and misses 20+ games. The Brew Crew were expecting big things from Ramirez and Rickie Weeks, but they are hitting .191 and .189 between the two of them. Weeks is striking out in 33% of his at-bats and that's just got going to cut it. And you have to think that all this steroid drama in the off season has contributed to Braun's slow start. Yes they are 9-9, but 7 of their 9 wins have come against the Cubs, Pirates, and Dodgers (like I've said before, I don't believe they are as good as their record). Their pitching has also started off slowly. Greinke hasn't been good lately, which is surprising because this is a contract year. But this might be the perfect time for the Brewers to sign him to an extension. They can use this time to get a little bit of a discount because even though Greinke hasn't started strong, he still will be one of the top 10 pitchers in the league. I don't see this team being good enough to compete with the Cardinals for the division title, they could be in the race for one of the two wild card spots, but ultimately they are going to miss out on the playoffs.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds have a lot of potential and this is a make or break year for manager Dusty Baker. They are anchored by perennial MVP candidate Joey Votto, fresh off a 10 year $225 million contract. Votto is surrounded by all-stars in the Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips and a promising young shortstop in Zack Cozart. Scott Rolen and Bruce have gotten off to slow starts but I look for them to turn it around. Especially playing in their ballpark, they will be able to score runs. Their biggest question mark is pitching. They went all in on Matt Latos, giving up two of their top prospects and a quality starter, hoping he can be what he was 2 years ago for San Diego. But the biggest challenge for Latos will be going from a pitcher friendly ballpark to a hitter friendly ballpark. Johnny Cueto and Latos can make a pretty good 1-2 in the rotation. The rest are decent, but I think Aroldis Chapman should have started the season in the rotation. This team has all the tools to make the playoffs and you have to think that if they aren't at least in contention, Dusty Baker might be looking for a new job next season.

Chicago Cubs – Their biggest move over the off-season was bringing in Theo Epstein to run the show, essentially changing the culture around the Cubs. They have cleaned house, hired a new manager in Dale Sveum, let Aramis Ramirez go, and traded away Marlon Byrd. It seems like they are going to try to move Alfonso Soriano or just wait for his monster contract to end before they do anything. Epstein's biggest move to trade for his guy, Anthony Rizzo, to be “the guy” in the future. Even though they aren't really trying to compete for anything this year, Bryan LaHair has been a surprising story. He has been playing a very good first base hitting .364 with 4 home runs. Jeff Samardzija has also been pretty good since going to the rotation. The knock on him in the past has been he walks way too many guys, but it looks like he has finally gotten it together putting up a 3.13 K/BB ratio.




Houston Astros – This is the last season the Astros are going to play in the National League. But this is another team that isn't expected to compete for a postseason spot, but they have a chance to get better in the future. Two years ago, they had the worst farm system in the league, but after trading players such as Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence, it looks like they have been rebuilding and they are gradually improving. There are several players at the lower level with a chance to develop. Some of their young players, Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez, have already made an impact at the highest level and it looks like they will be pretty good players. They should be looking to trade Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers to continue to stock up their farm system. This team looks like they could be better than the worst team and I wouldn't be surprised if they finished 4th in this division.


Pittsburgh Pirates – Every year, the Pirates seem to be that one team that people choose to be the dark horse to get into the playoffs, but every year they disappoint us. This team has a good franchise player in Andrew McCutchen and a couple of good young players in Neil Walker and Jose Tabata. Walker and Tabata has gotten off to slow starts and the Pirates are going to need them to hit and stay healthy if they are even going to think about competing. The second round pick in the 2008 draft, Pedro Alvarez, has the tools to also be a franchise player and has shown flashes, but he just hasn't been able to put it together. The Pirates also have one of the better farm systems that features potential aces in Jameson Taillon and 2011 first overall pick in UCLA's Gerrit Cole. Their pitching right now are filled with stop-gap pitchers in AJ Burnett, Kevin Correia, and Erik Bedard – just waiting for their young pitchers to develop. Bedard is actually having a pretty good start, but it isn't shown in his 0-4 record. Like every year, this team has some hidden talent, but they are probably 2-3 years away from putting it together.

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